the golf tipster!

Early doors, Stricker for a "two-peat"

2011-02-17T03:04:00.000-08:00

Who would have guessed ten years ago that this week's two top sports stories would be about Tiger Woods spitting and an Italian headbutting the hardest footballer I ever saw?

Ah well, both stories are more newsworthy than Darren "DA" Points (for it is he) winning on tour. Anyone that took the two billion to one on offer, well done. Now give it up and retire. Lightning does not strike twice. Mind you I did once get 200/1 about Thomas Levet after 36 holes at Loch Lomond, but I digress.

This week at Riviera, Steve Stricker is the obvious choice. He won last year in similar conditions, he's hard as nails and has already had two top ten finishes in 2011. Mickleson is in the field so you can get 14/1. Me, I'm going to wait until Saturday morning.

Betfair crazy odds tip this week is Charlie Wi. 300/1 when the local TAB say just 151. Double it up with the Rebels to beat the Tahs...you knows it...

Age shall not weary...

2011-02-09T12:45:00.000-08:00

Still early days and punters the world over will be writing the words Dustin and Johnson on betting slips as he lines up for what your American cousins and only them call a three-peat. It's never been done before and it's Dustin. $7?Three good reasons to say No thanks in my book.

Last weeks form is intriguing. Watney has his hoof on the till, JB and Snedeker are looking like good outsiders and of course a certain P Mickleson (what's he doing here?) could just gap them. Shame G Mac's not here, but we can wait...

I'm going for someone this week who definitely has age on his side. Someone who told the press room on Sunday night that whatever he was doing was "working". For a man who has won a squintrillion dollars on tour with a great record here, that's good enough for me, especially when he had a top ten last week with almost 120 putts over the four days. Officially known as "the hardest practicer on tour" I'm off to the TAB to take the each way odds of 34/1 on SINGH, VIJAY.

Good luck all...

Waste Management?

2011-02-02T01:15:00.000-08:00

Welcome back. The season hasn't really started yet and I for one can't claim to be licking my lips at the prospect of the Waste Management Classic when the far more important prospect of our boys in red beating them again looms large. So no bets this week.

But I will give you my "five to follow" for all of you who are just about to start a tipping comp.

Martin Kaymer is the star waiting in the wings this year. Robert Lee described his win in the Middle East as the best four rounds of golf ever played. 1 bogey in four rounds including 18 holes in the worst of the weather? Reckon he'll win a major. Maybe more than one...

I was also really impressed by two Americans in the Ryder Cup, Jeff Overton and Ricky Fowler. They'd both be good bets for a matchplay event in a few weeks time?

And of course, can't get past two other Ryder cuppers, Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell. Again, wonder how many they'll win?

I'll be leaving Tiger, Adam Scott, Charles Howell and Sergio for a while....

Back in the USA

2010-06-06T04:02:00.000-07:00

Sorry. We've been away for a while. The news on Topping is good. Off to a Class 2 this week. He'll win.

Love betting on the last round of a US tour event, epecially when the top of the leaderboard is full of players who haven't won on tour. Can Fowler get it done? The $1.79 on Betfair seems a bit skinny to say the least, but assuming he, Barnes and Petrovic all get the wobbles, there's some huge prices on Betfair for players who are more used to making winners speeches.

Right now you can get 100/1 plus on O'Hair, Overton, Perry and McIlroy. 65/1 on Phil and if you're a real punter, 280/1 on T Woods and Jason Day....on a course where Barnes shot 10 under yesterday....

Fowler may well shoot five under and stroll home. But then again...

Sweet and heady

2010-01-28T01:01:00.000-08:00

Sorry about this, but on the eve of the big man's return to pro golf, I'm backing Ryan Palmer again. Three doubles and too many bogeys meant that he didn't finish in the top 10 in the Crosby marathon but one round of 8 under was enough to show he's still in the game.

You're welcome to the 8/1 on offer about Mickleson on his return but we'll be taking the 140/1 about the Hawaii winner. And on the subject of Hawaii, we'll be saying "no thanks" to the 25/1 about Allenby. Claw or not, he can't win.

Big bet of the weekend is at Australian racing's spiritual home and the logic for our tip is this. She's never lost when we've backed her. Plus the form was franked solid when Set for Fame whooshed home last weekend. 7/1 seems a big, big price and whilst there are some talented sprinters in the field, this girl is something very special.

So a few bob on Ryan Palmer and a few more, in fact all you can afford on our official second favourite horse, Irish Lights. Go, you good thing...

Back with a bang?

2010-01-19T00:12:00.000-08:00

So that's Hawaii out of the way, now on to the season proper. Only a week to wait and meantime, it's the annual Bing Crosby Celebrity marathon. No doubt we'll be treated to clips of Bill Murray, Kevin Costner and random football jocks goofing around various private courses set in improbable surroundings? Can hardly wait.

It's not normally a betting proposition as the celebs do tend to get in the way plus, as usual, it's a less than stellar field. So much so that even the TAB have opened at $17 the field. With Charles Howell III rated only $24. He can't win, surely.

I'm really surprised that last weeks winner Ryan Palmer is $51. He was solid down the stretch this week including a near chip in for eagle at eighteen that put poor old Allenby's fragile putting stroke in the spotlight. The rest is history. Back to back wins are rare but it's a poor field and he's in form.

Happy New Year and giddy up...

Told you!

2009-10-03T05:04:00.000-07:00

Three months ago, I tipped that SPEED GIFTED would win this year's Mlebourne Cup and that you should take the 40/1 on offer. As I write, he's 8/1 second favourite and 4/1 for Caulfield. I reckon he'll win them both. Seriously. If you can find a bookie that will lay the 32/1, fill the proverbials. He's a good, good thing. Well done Lee...

Actually, the big spring races are looking pretty easy tonight. DENMAN and IRISH LIGHTS will win the two Guineas races at Caulfield. TRUSTING will win the Cox Plate and if you want a long shot, I reckon that THE COMEDIAN might be a Derby horse against a rough old lot at 71/1.

Trust me.

Return on Investment

2009-09-23T15:13:00.000-07:00

It's gambling I know but given the way that the so called market makers have trashed all of our savings in the last few years, serious punters should consider hauling a truck load of money out to randwick on Saturday. DENMAN is $1.60 in a five horse race. He should be $1.05 maxiumum. Help yourself

For the less brave amongst us, I have another bet of the week to follow my successful tip on Irish Lights last week (hey! one in a row!).

Lee Freedman takes another of those pommie horses to Randwick. He's won two from two and is entered in the Cox and the Epsom. As Purple is in the race, he's got in with the minimum weight. (No rain is forecast, so purple, like Adam Scott, can't win.) As if that's not enough, stable jockey Dwayne Dunn is making the trip to ride. The smarties have taken the $7 that Centrebet put up and he's $5.50 now. Put last week's winnings on, take each way if you wish.

What?. Oh yes...he's called SOUND OF NATURE

Jockeying for position

2009-09-18T23:54:00.000-07:00

Races are hard enough to win without dropping the horse out last and making them overtake the field. So why (oh why) do professional jockeys make it so hard? Both Neroli and Trusting should have won today. Raffaelo too. Great to see my prediction on Irish Lights come true (boy she's good) but half an hour before Speedy's race can I plea that Dunn doesn't take her to the back of the field on the worst race track in the country?

Location, location, location

2009-09-17T15:33:00.001-07:00

Four of the best horses in training go to Caulfield tomorrow. Reckon only one of them will win.

Our favourite horse, Speed Gifted is first emergency for the Naturalism. Despite not actually being in the race, the bookies have him at $2.60. That's how good he is. But he might not get a run. Bring on the Metrop when we'll hopefully see our double come up with Irish Lights.

The Coolmore horse could be anything and at $4 tomorrow, he's the bet of the day.

I'm really confident that in a few months time, barring injury, we'll be hailing Trusting as one of the finds of the season. But he's racing at Caulfield tomorrow and it's a leaders track. Let's hope he runs a shocker and we can pile into him when he runs at either Flemington or Randwick at double figure odds.

Finally, Neroli returns tomorrow. Unless it sluices down overnight, she can't win. Elsewhere look out for Hume and Funtantes, both bringing great Qld form to town.

The bet of the day is IRISH LIGHTS.

Spring Racing Carnival

2009-09-11T05:10:00.000-07:00

Hotting up by the week, the greatest racing season in the world is almost here. Can't remember a year when I've fancied so many horses so strongly.

Toppermost still is SPEED GIFTED. He won oh so easily at Flemington again last week and I just reckon he might be another Pebbles, another Dawn Run, dare I say it, even another Desert Orchid. All the value has gone for the cups of course but he has to win either the Metropolitan or one of the Cups. As McCririck would say, Get ON!

I've also taken some ludicrous prices about the Godolphin horses including 600/1 about Crime Scene and 100/1 about Kirklees at the Valley. Speaking of which, 100/1 about DENMAN in the Cox Plate seems great shopping.

My other big tip of the year is Coolmore's IRISH LIGHTS. Very few horses not called Speed Gifted have ever won so easily ay Flemington and again he could be anything. Take the 12/1 in the Guineas into Speedy in the Metropolitan. We have...

Turn, turn, turn.

2009-08-20T05:12:00.000-07:00

Been doing a Faldo. Hidden away trying to perfect the swing and inevitably have hit the wall with this shoulder turn business. No turn equals sway. Sway equals steep attack, huge divots and missing a green with a wedge. That's bad.

So after another night bashing balls at the range, I need to remember this. 1-2-3, 1-2-3, 1-2-3, 1-2-3 and so on.

Has to be easier than turning the core to face my knee. Another classic from the idiots at TG.

Take it shot by shot. Will let you know.

Written in the stars?

2009-06-22T05:41:00.000-07:00

He's 7 shots off the lead and has just 11 holes to play. In the US Open. So why is Tiger great value at 17/1?

Don't think Barnes can keep it straight enough down the stretch. Glover's got mind issues when he gets in contention. Can't think where to start with Duval. The fatBoy and Weir are poor value although both could sneak it as could Mahan.

Have taken the 50/1 about Goosen who knows how to win and the 320/1 on Soren Hansen. (Because it's 320/1 mainly).

But I can't say no to a small saver at 17/1 about the world's greatest sportsman on his home turf. The man who won on one leg last year. As Joe Strummer would say, "ridiculous ain't it".

TOPPING runs in a barrier trial at Toowoomba tomorrow. (It's in Australia). Will he be the next Xaar Xaar or the next Go Golf World? Go you hopefully good thing...

Open and shut?

2009-06-18T03:02:00.001-07:00

We're back to the old dilemma. Do we back Tiger at 3/1 now or wait till he shoots 74 on day one and take the more generous 5/1? Or do we wait till 36 holes are under our belt?

The answer of course is a bit of both. We'll wait till tomorrow on Tiger and pick the best outsider on Saturday morning. For now we'll concentrate on fidning the winner of the "betting without Tiger" market. Our criteria are obvious. Must be able to win under pressure. Must know how to hit it straight and long. Be nice if he's a good price too.

It's the last criteria that knocks out Phil, Sergio, Furyk and Casey. But I reckon three of them can't win anyway. Like Adam Scott (who he?).

My three tentative choices are ludicrously sentimental. My three poms against the rest are Luke Donald, Lee Westwood and Graeme McDowell. They've all shown enough to suggest they'll be up for this and at 75/1 plus, great value. I've also had a micron on James Nitties. 790/1 was just too hard to resist.

We'll be back at the weekend, hopefuly just before the Lions put De Wet Barry's countrymen in their place. Not a moment too soon.

Back to reality

2009-06-08T01:17:00.000-07:00

Two birdies down the stretch. Tiger wins. And I'm 50, apparently. Hilarious.

As is the website I got this picture from. It's called www.cakethat.com. Marvellous. Happy, happy happy...

Out of the woods?

2009-06-05T19:17:00.000-07:00

How bizarre. Calculating the odds on a big event and not even thinking about Tiger. Famous last words? We'll see...

Yesterday was obviously tougher than the first day where Loooook Donald shot 8 under. I've never heard of Matt Bettencourt but noticed that in shooting the day's lowest round he had three bogeys to go with the 8 birdies. Which is nice. At 100/1 we had to take a few dollars worth...

As for the rest of the field, DiMarco is good value three off the lead at 100/1. He's struggled since the operation but he's gradually coming back to form and obviously knows how to win. I'm also interested in the 400/1 about Hunter MayHan. He can win. As can Johnson Wagner at 200/1, That's him in the picture.

But it's entirely possible I'll be starting again with more small stakes tomorrow...

Melbourne Cup Winner 2009

2009-05-15T03:20:00.000-07:00

Last Saturday, I saw the Australian debut of this year's Melbourne Cup winner.

Speed Gifted's first experience of an Australian race meeting was fittingly at Flemington. This son of Montjeu (sounds familar?) formerly trained by Luca Cumani and now looked after by a bloke who knows a thing or two about the cup, Lee Freedman, put in the most dazzling sprint since Pebbles won the Breeders Cup.

Starting at the luxurious odds of 20/1 in a modest Melbourne event despite being placed in a UK Gp3 race last year, he sat wide 6 furlongs out until he suddenly went whooska leaving everything paddling in his wake.

I don't think we'll get the 80/1 we got about Bauer last year, but holy moly. What a run!

Tiger? He can't win...

2009-05-15T03:04:00.000-07:00

What happpened there? Apart from another donation going to my bookie's new Bentley fund.

To the relief of all and sundry, Eldrich's taking the week off this week along with, well virtually everyone you've ever heard of from the PGA Tour. The Valero Texas Open is like a golfing equivalent of Life on Mars with both Corey Pavin and David Duval (David Duval?) both on the leaderboard chasing Justin Leonard and Paul Goydos. Leonard is astonishingly bad value at less than 4/1 with 54 to go on a course where birdies are swarming around. Not for us thanks.

It's a lottery wit 54 to go but have to have a few dollars on Jarrod Lyle at the ridiculous odds of 1000/1. An old favourite of ours, Jarrod was 4 under after ten holes, three off the lead when I left home this morning. All day I've been planning to have a few quid on at, say 40/1 as I thought he'd be the smokey, a few shots off the lead. Taking a quadruple bogey at his 11th hole then two more coming home means he's 9 shots back. 1000/1! Ridiculous.

As is Nathan Green at 830/1. Three birdies and three bogeys make level today, but this is his sort of track. And at those odds...

You can get huge odds about Nick O'Hern as well. Not for me ta.

Big punting weekend again. Looking out for Extra Zero at Flemington plus Sarerra in Singapore. I'm also told that Hey Elvis is laid out for the Straddy. Go careful out there...

Still good value at half the price!

2009-05-09T23:21:00.000-07:00

Tiger Woods was 7/1 yesterday. If only we'd tipped more on. He's still great value to win at 3/1 (even if that's the price he was at when the tournament started).

If you really want overnight value for your bets, Perry is still 100+, but perhaps just too far off the lead. We'll keep our fingers crossed that the 300/1 about Danny Chopra comes good.

Good to see Poulter hang in there today but worryingly for punters he topped the scrambling stats whilst Cejka leads having topped the straight driving stats, hitting 88% of fairways (all bar one in simple english). I'm not sure he'll be doing that come Sunday. He's not won in the US before and I don't think a 4 shot lead is material here where doubles and worse are commonplace. And that's just at the island par three 17th.

Anybody with money in their accounts should take the 3/1 about Tiger to win. It's almost stealing...

This is what they want

2009-05-08T22:04:00.000-07:00

Love tournaments like this. 7/1 the field at half way and already we've seen people shoot 7 under yet the leader is just a few shots ahead. I'm going to ignore Cjeka. I'd say he's a bit of an Adam Scott. Likewise Poulter and Stenson. Not because i don't think the Europeans can win, but they just don't offer any value. To labour the point, you can get 8/1 about Tiger still and he's far from out of it.

But, of course, I've gone wider. And why not, when you can get 100/1 about Geoff Ogilvy, 400/1 about Vijay and a similar price about Danny Chopra who shot 7 under today. They, like Tim Clark and Ernie Else are just irresistible at the odds.

Geoff Ogilvy had a mare today. Four bogeys and a double matched with six birdies. He's great value at 100/1. Get on, live a little. Just pray they don't decide the play off with a penalty shoot out.

A whole new ball game

2009-05-05T02:27:00.000-07:00

I first played golf on a 9 hole course on holiday in Ireland with my Mum and Dad. I was 12 years old. having watched Trevino, Jacklin et al on Shell's World of Golf, I was hooked. The rest is boring history but suffice to say that through my job I've probably read more tips on instruction than is healthy, even for a golf nut.

One thing I've learned is that the correct grip is essential. Like stance, posture, the right clubs and a good mental game. Essential. And whichever guru you turn to, books, tired old golf magazines, even my friends at the Golf Magic forum, they all agree on one thing. Overlapping, Vardon, Interlocking, all grips are ok.

Except the baseball grip.

The "baseball" or ten finger grip is uniformly despised by golf's literati. Like Jim Furyk's swing or Angel Cabrera's belly putter, it's not what a proper golfer uses. Although, those two blokes aren't exactly doing it tough...

At the range on Sunday, after a hopeless medal round the day before, I switched back to the baseball grip in sheer desperation. Suddenly it all made sense again. Irons hit crisper, 5 wood nailed into kingdom come and glory of glories...it works for those tricky shots around the green that make grown men weep.

So this week, I've been nipping into the back room every so often and swinging a club with a baseball grip. I'll have a hit at the range on Friday or Saturday and then St Michaels had better look out. Wish me luck...

Nessa's our special guest tipster

2009-04-23T04:48:00.000-07:00

Oh. I won't lie to you. Kenny Perry's going to win the money this weekend. Field's hopeless, see. And all the so called experts are tipping people who can't win. What's more of a worry, I'll be honest with you is that they are all tipping the same people who can't win (and here goes the kiss of death) like Senden, Merrick, Hamilton and Howell Mark 3.

Take my advice, in any race where you can get 18/1 the favourite, it's worth a look. Load up on Kenny Perry to get back to winning ways. Alun's back next week...look you, isn't it.

Tidy.

Would have, could have etc...

2009-04-18T23:59:00.000-07:00

She should have won, would have if a) the race had been another 100 meters or b) if the jockey wasn't a halfwit. Damn.

The Verizon classic isn't really that much of a classic. If Brian Gay does hold on to win (he probably won't) then it'll be a reflection of the field as much as anything. Given that someone has shot 65 every day (and over a dozen did yesterday) you'd think that the tournament will be won with a score around 13 under. Gay's been flawless to here with just one bad hole in the first 54 but with just one tour win in the last five years, I'm not interested in taking the odds on him adding another trophy to the proverbial.

Davis Love is still there and knowing the course backwards could still represent the best value at 20/1. Luke Donald is probably itching a win and on pure form, one of the stars of Augusta looks nicely poised a few behind the leader. Then again, it is Todd Hamilton...

The forgotten horse?

2009-04-16T15:16:00.000-07:00

Form over the distance. Trainer in form. Light weight. Won a big race a fortnight ago in the heavy (and boy did it rain in Sydney this week).

I reckon NEROLI is nailed on for the Doncaster at each way prices. Make up an exotic with Hot Danish if you like, but don't miss this one.

It must be (Davis) Love, Love Love.

2009-04-16T06:06:00.001-07:00

Harbour Town. Famous for being one of the original computer game courses with an 18th hole that wrecked many a card and the place that Davis "loves". (That's enough Davis Love puns I think)

He's a prolific winner here and others who have course form are Justin Leonard and Stewart Cink. You can be forgiven if you're thinking we've ended up in some kind of Dr Who meets the PGA time travel thing, especially when the PGA Tour experts unanimously pick another old man, Jim Furyk as this weeks winner!

It's hard to know what to make of the Masters but I'm saying Furyk did it tough and I reckon it'll be tougher for him to give a monkeys about the Verizon classic. Same applies to Cink and Els for mine. Amongst the most extraordinary tips on the web this week are some well respected experts tipping Rory McIlroy and Robert Allenby. They'll be tipping old Scotty next...

I'm taking two against the field at silly odds until the cut when I'll wade in properly. It's still hilarious that anyone's called Boo Weekly and like many at Emap I wonder whether he has a wife called Sue. (Sue weekly...geddit?).

Whatever, he's won here twice and defends the title this week. A more likely prospect who had a nice trip to Augusta is Aaron Baddeley. Devilishly good on the greens and last years unlucky runner up, he may well rise up to the top come Sunday. As it were.

Good luck to anyone who has any money left after Augusta...

Back to single figures?

2009-04-14T05:13:00.000-07:00

I've been toiling with a double digit handicap for too long. From the age of 15 when Rupert Speechley cut me six shots from 14 to 8 for "general play", I was a single figure man well into my thirties with a lifetime handicap low of 6.1. Mind you, that was when I was working on a golf magazine and playing twice a week plus practice, but that's not important.

After a lifetime already of playing the game, I'm going to collect and publish all the very best tips and advice I can muster, both from the interweb and the deep recesses of my brain to crack the secret of single figures. Inspired by the waistlines on offer down the stretch at Augusta (kenny Perry's 49 didn't you know) it's time for a serious crack at it.

We're on the way back, back, (back!) to what the locals call "A Grade". Join me on my journey!

Best laid plans...

2009-04-13T00:46:00.000-07:00

How many selections do you need before you come to Angel Cabrera? Some lucky soul got 330/1 on betfair during the week and you could have grabbed 12/1 last night. I didn't and as far as I can find from a trawl through the blogosphere, neither did anybody else...

Good luck to him and anyone who had a few bob on him or Katayama for the place. Guess Perry will take the easy option and stay home for the Open again after meeting his demons today. Don't think the R&A will lose too much sleep.

We'll be back, back (back!) next week and following a few conversations on Twitter (I can't bring myself to call them tweets), will be adding a bit more golf commentary to the blog based on a magazine idea I had many years ago called Fore! Look out for that and a new website called The Golf Writers both coming up soon.

They'd be in production by now if Kenny had won...

It's Kenny!

2009-04-12T04:13:00.000-07:00

With four hours to go until showdown, Betfair have Cabrera as favourite, with Tiger out to 22/1. The words "surely he can't win" come to mind. For both of them...

In what might now be the dullest finish to a major ever, we're faced with the prospect of a shoot out between Perry, Furyk, Todd Hamilton and blimmin Rory Sabbatini. I'll have a tenner with you now that if he wins, he'll dedicate it to Gary Player. God give us all strength. There's no chance that Shingo or Tim Clark can get up sadly, especially for me as I've got a voucher on the par three winner for odds of 350/1.

I've had a little saver tonight on Sabbatini at 50 and Hamilton at 75 and still nothing on Chad but with my bets from three weeks ago at 100/1 ready to collect, it's a big cheerio and come on my sons to Kenny Perry and Jim Furyk, lets see one of you bring the cup home in style.

6/1 The field?. Got to love Betfair...

2009-04-11T00:11:00.000-07:00

This must be one of the best half way leaderboards for years. There's a good chance that Kenny stay at home Perry can hold his lead and we've got Harrington, Mickelson, Singh (hurrah!), Furyk, even Sergio, god bless him, still in the hunt. Plus Tiger.

That wedge at 18 was really horrid. Worryingly like me, in fact. Apart from the 320 yard uphill drive obviously. Very untiger like. Can he fix it on the range? 6/1 says he can...I'm going to pass.

We've got small price tickets running on all of the above except Paddy and Serge (yay!) with big price tickets on Badds and Romero. Have topped up with a flyer on Betfair with Poulter (at 500/1!) and Weir at 300/1.

Hoping the tournament won't be won by someone with a four letter christian name. Sorry Chad, Todd and Rory!

Who'll be runner up?

2009-04-10T00:28:00.000-07:00

Good of the match committee at Augusta to choose a host of soft pin positions to get us all interested in the Masters again. I'm sure the TV people had a quiet word as nobody wants to watch pros struggling and making bogey.

That's all fixed and under the heading of sublime to ridiculous, Larry Mize shot 5 under! You can get 330/1 on Betfair if you reckon he can do it again. I'll give you 3,300.

They'll probably leave it easy tomorrow but then toughen up for the weekend, when we'll see Tiger stroll through the field and win again. He always starts slowly, but this year he was actually a little unlucky and could be two or three better. And given that Chad and Hunter displayed the classic US absence of backbone on the home stretch, we need someone to hold firm and give the guy a game.

Happy with our antepost vouchers on Furyk, Weir, Clark and Baddeley and have a sneaky suspicion that Tim Clark might be thereabouts come Sunday. But unless you fancy the 2/1 and haven't had a bet yet, keep your money safe for another 24 hours...

Sure fire bets for Augusta?

2009-04-08T05:14:00.000-07:00

I like this picture. It features Trevor Immelman and Zach Johnson. Proof, if we needed it that the Masters has changed. Years ago, you'd only consider the top five in the world, maybe ten at best as betting propositions and lay them at all prices whilst they floundered (Faldo shot 75 on Friday in the year he smashed Norman) only to see the cream rise to the top come Sunday.

Stuff of legend? Sure, but this is a very different Augusta. Longer, tougher and by all accounts blimmin cold. My people tell me that it's forecast to get warmer by the weekend but in the meantime, few players have been practicing for fear of contracting frostbite or something.

So who's going to win? Tiger Woods probably and at $3.65 on Betfair now, it's one of the bets of the year, especially after that ridiculous putt a fortnight ago. Sorry but it is.

A winner's a winner, but only fools get rich at those prices, so for the rest of us, I strongly recommend Betfair's excellent "betting without Tiger" market. Here's how it works. The prices assume Tiger's not playing. So, at time of writing, you can get 7/1 about Phil and double figures about everybody else. To come second, if you get my drift. If Tiger falls at the last and your choice wins outright of course, you get a lower price than if you'd had a normal bet, but you could also be accused of being picky...

The bets I recommend now (and there'll be much better value after the cut) are based on three things: form at Augusta (no chance to practice not being a good thing for first timers), value and putting. There's simply no point backing someone who gets the wobbles on Sunday. Sorry Fred.

My three against the Tiger-less field based on the above are therefore:
Trevor Immelman (80/1). First to practice on Sunday and quite clearly basing his whole year around this (wouldn't you?). Let's hope he's here for more than choosing the meals?

Luke Donald (80/1). 4 times the price of Casey? Value I reckon, despite a poor year with a few injuries. He'll be fit and firing and boy can he putt.

Pat Perez (110/1): The new Zach Johnson? He's won this year and has course form, albeit from a while ago.

I'd also consider the following good value: Ian Poulter (80/1). Gutsy and likely to raise his game. Aaron Baddeley (140/1) Great putter. Has God on his side. Tim Clark?

But you can't back them all. Not that this has stopped me in the past. We'll be back, back (back!) with more tips after 36 holes. And yes, we do hold a 100/1 outright ticket on Kenny Perry. Ridiculous. As is the blogger who writing about Gary Player said "you never know". Yes, we do. Like a certain Queenslander, he can't win. See you...I'll be one with bleary eyes...

The greatest weekend of the year?

2009-04-07T15:26:00.000-07:00

And that's betting without the Ospreys at Thomond Park. Tonight, we'll be posting the latest news from Augusta where the weather is currently unsettled but set fair for another huge weekend. We'll be taking a very special look at the "without Tiger" markets where the value was last year. It may be worth snapping up the 50/1 about Vijay Singh now though.

We'll pass on the tempting odds on Scott, Couples, Allenby and anyone else who can't putt.

See you tonight! Watch out for the updates on Twitter...

the week before the show

2009-04-02T05:19:00.000-07:00

It's a measure of how big next week is, that apparently Redstone Golf Club, home of this weeks Houston Open is famous for being "like Augusta". That's nice.

Sadly, even though there's a million bucks on offer, I can't help but feel that many of the field will use these 72 holes as putting practice. Not including Tiger of course who's not here. But then he hardly needs putting practice, does he.

The experts are tipping Mickelson, Ogilvy, Sergio...and Stricker. At least two pundits have picked Alviro Quiros as he smashes it long distances. Course form throws up Chad Campbell, who has been talking about looking forward to Houston and knows the course like the back of his hand plus Vijay Singh who has won this twice since it came here. Then there's Johnson Wagner, last year's winner who was overheard telling friends that his game is "coming back". He would say that.

Small stakes best for us this week in a congested field, with a real bet to come after 36. A few bob to win on Vijay, a few more on Wagner and my usual saver on the Wimeister. Come on Charlie! Welcome to all my twitter friends. growing every day...

Is that a new golf course?

2009-03-31T03:27:00.000-07:00

Legend has it that in 1995 or thereabouts, someone asked Sandy Lyle what he thought of Tiger Woods. Sandy thought it was the name of a new golf course. Mind you, when bumping into Tony Jacklin at Orlando airport later that year, Sandy's answer to Tony's question "where are you off to" was "the toilet".

Lyle notwithstanding, could anybody now disagree that Tiger is not just the greatest golfer of all time, but possibly, just possibly the greatest sportsman ever?

Last Sunday was just ridiculous. Ask Sean O'Hair. But no more ridiculous than the US Open on one leg. Or that chip in at 16 at the Masters with the Nike logo poised over the cup.

Tiger Woods. Greatest. Sportsman. Ever. And yes, 3/1 was great value....that subject, my dear Twittering friends, is now closed.

leader of the gang

2009-03-27T15:18:00.000-07:00

Charlie Wi repaid our faith appearing in the top five last week to cap off a great week on the punt. No golf bets this week, especially not the 3/1 about Tiger!

Off to Caulfield today for yet another day of racing dominated by leaders. The last few meetings at the track have been ridiculous with front runners slushing home at ridiculous prices. If you're studying the card, look for horse with winning form at the track and distance. Ignore the bookies prices!

To save you all the time and effort, here's the best bets today.

Sandhill Prince is the best bet of the day in race three. It will lead and win and you should get each way odds. The next best bet of the day is Stokehouse in race 8. Each way punters should have a look at Quizzical Lady in the fourth, Rich Esprit in the fifth and Riva San in the next. The good news is that Alf Matthews doesn't tip any of them...

Running hot?

2009-03-19T15:05:00.000-07:00

I played with Nathan Green once. Well, more accurately, I caddied for a mexican pro whose name escapes me who was paired in the Jacobs Creek with the Novocastrian. I remember being blown away by Nathan Green's ordinariness (and his huge caddie who grunted at me all the way round). Green's game was reminiscent of Peter Alliss...hit it down the middle somewhere, knock it on the green, putt it close and hole out...easy. Tidy but bottom line, he's not the man you'd expect to be shooting for the lead in the USA.

But he is. He's three shots off the Furyk action and I've backed him at 330/1. Trevor Immelman, another of my picks, is in the clubhouse at 3 under and he's safely backed at 200/1. But in the week when I left Cheltenham with a bunch of twenty's it's Chris Couch we'll be watching tomorrow after taking the 1000/1 on Betfair. Couchy started with four birdies till he woke up limping home to a 70, one under par.

Wish I had Sky TV when I'm travelling. Justin TV and I are about to become good friends. Go Couchy!

Cheltenham Festival!

2009-03-18T11:53:00.000-07:00

Was I the only punter who attended Randwick and Cheltenham in the same week? There's nothing like the Festival and once again, from the 9.30 train journey filled with eager punters through to the terrific card of racing it lived up to all expectations.

Well more, actually, thanks to an inspired selection in the last race, where my tenner on Andytown returned an unbelievable 317 pounds return after an easy win. And this coming after my old mate Tom backed a 22/1 winner earlier in the day and we both had a few bob on a 10/1 winner. As they say round here "ay ay"...

If I'd had my wits about me, I'd have backed the forecast in the first as well, but I didn't. Still, is there any better feeling in the world than getting home with your pockets bulging with bookie's cash? I've not come across it yet....

Transition sir?

2009-03-18T11:12:00.000-07:00

A blank sheet last week, but at least the boyos scraped home in Rome. Scraped being the operative word. This week the PGA boyos go to one of Florida's toughest courses for the bizarrely named transitions champonship. There's probably a good reason for the name, but who cares...

This week is all about value for mine. The experts on PGA.com are tipping Furyk and O'Hair who are the obvious choices on form and track record and there's sniffilings around Calcavecchia and Petterson who again have previous race form round course and distance. Implausibly, there's also a tip on PGA.com for Adam Scott. He can't win.

My short list for the week reflects the fact that this is a tough players course rather than the usual American tournament layout. Perhaps that brings Brian Davis into play at huge odds? Nathan Green? James Nitties? Trevor Immelman? They're all out there at three figure odds, so all worth a look.

Nick Watney is 38/1. Seems big. On a course where a score of 4 under can win, this will be tough. But we're backing Charlie Wi again after a reasonable performance last year. It's not a great field and he's 80/1. Take your pick and good luck...

Tiger, tiger burning blue...

2009-03-11T03:57:00.000-07:00

We're back, back (back!). Have to admit I get distracted during the 6 nations but a six hour stopover en route to the Land of My Fathers does wonders for the writers block. The tour's off to the Blue Monster in Dural and according to the experts we're going to see a win for Tiger, Phil or...Allenby? Eh? Here's a pop quiz. Which one of that trio can't putt for toffee?

Despite Tiger being Tiger and winning here over half the times he's turned up, he's just no odds for a 72 hole marathon. Not when you can get the same price for a place on the favourite in the Triumph Hurdle. And as for Allenby, I'm saying he'll be paired with Scott at the end of the tournament, possibly rushing breakfast on the final day.

I was really impressed with Lee Westwood last week. Striking it crisply, swinging back to his best, he's terrific value at 60/1. As is Justin Rose who despite form is never a 125/1 shot. But the real value, form and price is just dead obvious this week.

Vijay Singh finished tied eleventh and second in the last two years and has been in the top 10 at the CA Championship in five of his eight starts. Whilst he's been a bit Allenby like with the putter recently, he's currently ranked 10th in greens in regulation. Best of all, he's three times the price of the Fat Controller and 10 times the price of the King. Each Way? I should coco...

Good to be back?

2009-01-09T21:14:00.000-08:00

At first glance the Mercedes tournament seemed right up our proverbial. We've got a strung out field, heaps of birdies and people shooting 7 under to leap up the leaderboard. Hell, even the boy from the bush shot six under today.

But our original delight at the field soon turned to disappointment when I checked betfair's prices. I was expecting at least 100/1 about each of our two best picks but at time of typing, even 50/1 looks good. Ah well.

Ryuchi Imada is an obvious choice. He's had heaps of birdies in both the opening rounds (and a few bogies yesterday) and of course brings form to the course. How could we forget when we backed him to win at 100/1 last year. Can't help but tip him again.

5 off the lead and just 34/1 also reminds me of last year, when I actually wrote that Camillo Villegas seemed good value but didn't actually tip him. He won of course. He's had heaps of birdies in both rounds, so in a tournament that'll likely be won with 15 or 16 under, he's just about in the frame. Wish he was a bigger price, but I won't get fooled again. Back him now and collect Monday!

He can't win...

2008-12-10T02:57:00.000-08:00

It's been a running joke on TGT (that's short for The Golf Tipster by the way) that Adam Scott can't win. Three shots clear, 18 to go, all you have to do is get that pesky ball into a hole that gets tinier as the prize gets nearer. And then the putter starts to wobble. You know the drill.

Well this week, he can't win. He's injured. Although today he said that "had it been the US Open he might have played".

So, let's take this slowly. An AUSTRALIAN player can't play in the AUSTRALIAN Open. But he would have played if it had been the $3m Wannamaker Trophy up for grabs, aka the US Open.

Fair to say the Australian golf forums are wishing him well on his return to wherever. See ya!

Anyhoo. On to business. This weeks Australian Open at Royal Sydney is packed with Australian stars but a bit light on worldwide drawcards. There's Darren Clarke of course and John Daly, but we're probably looking at a local picking up the trophy on Sunday.

I can't pick between the Aussies. Ogilvy looked solid last week but is no value at 7/1, Allenby continues to be Allenby and then there's a toss up between Green, Pampling, Senden et all, 15/1 on offer all round. That's a 36 hole bet for mine.

To start the Aussie season on TGT, we've got a HUGE betting opportunity in the shape of James Nitties. 5th last year in this event is a plus, but here's a guy who is coming home after shooting 23 under to be runner up in PGA Tour school. Now he might be a bit tired, but on the other hand, he might just be surfing a wave of something after getting his card. I'd make him a 40/1 shot at best but even the odious TAB have him at a mouthwatering 66/1, Betfair last night were going 140/1, with 10/1 to finish in the top ten. Ridiculous value and we're in with both boots.

Hope he's not knackered. It's good to be back...

see them fall

2008-10-05T03:34:00.000-07:00

The last round of the Turning Stone will see someone achieve their lifetime's ambition whilst many more absurdly named USPGA pro's will see their hopes disappear before them as a miserable last nine unfolds.

We're sitting pretty with a few bucks on the man from East Herts that they used to call Goldfinger, Brian Davis, although since winning tour school, he's not actually tasted PGA victory yet so the chickens are still very much uncounted. But neither have Overton, Day, Thompson or Dustin Warren (who they?). Eagle eyed punters won't have missed Tag Ridings missing from 2 feet on 18 as the nerves kicked in a tad early at the end of the third round.

One man who has won this year is our friend Ryiuchi Imada, who gave us a 100/1 pay day two months ago. Three birdies yesterday puts him just four behind a shaky leaderboard. We're looking at a four figure payout having loaded up on the 330/1 on offer at the start. How do you say "go on my son" in Japanese?

I'm sorry...have we met?

2008-10-01T14:01:00.000-07:00

How weak is the field for the Turning Stone Classic? Allenby's the favourite based on his brief glimmer of form last week and tour leviathan Dudley Hart (who he?) is third favourite. The tournament has "wait until the cut" written all over it and it's really hard to find any value this far out.

As usual, we've scanned the field for past winners and Ted Purdy kind of stands out at 500/1 although he hasn't won since 2005. There's three figure prices on Rich Beem and Brian Davis but nothing that sets the pulses racing.

We'll pick the winner of the Epsom to get some cash in the bank and consider options after the halfway cut.

Oh Sergio...

2008-09-29T02:50:00.000-07:00

And there was me after the Majors saying "No...he's not...he just got beat by a better player". I'm not so sure now. With him, the FC and the new Chris diMarco at the top of the leaderboard, the 32/1 on offer last night against Cammi seemed poor value. Chokers the lot of them. Looks stupendous value now...

Must work on that "seemed" word. Oh and make a mental note. Never back Allenby again ever, whatever the price.

Final word to the 19 handicapper on Bob's site who posted that Perry could never win. Thanks for that. Much appreciated. Ta.

Tantamount to stealing?

2008-09-25T01:30:00.000-07:00

I don't get this. After breezing through the Ryder Cup singles barely drawing breath and with three PGA tour wins under his belt this year, Kenny Perry is 50/1 to win this weekend. That's the precise same price as Ben "swing change and hopelessly out of form Curtis". Is his shoulder injury...the one he sustained when putting Stenson away 3 and 2...really that bad?

Beware the injured golfer. I'm betting up to my limit (using some of the money we won on Vijay) and suggest you do too.

Still not a fan though...

Cheer up missus

2008-09-23T03:19:00.000-07:00

So if Retief Goosen asked you who he'd drawn in the world matchplay and the answer was the now famous Mr Weekly, would you be in danger of saying (ahem) "boo to a goose"?

And I wonder if my friends at Zoo Weekly have realised that Boo's wife's name is Sue? Sue Weekly...geddit!

The village idiot won and Perry holed his putts. That was the difference. Oh and putting Sergio, (whose Ryder Cup singles record is played 4 won 0) out first. I can speak from the heart of my bottom Nick when I say that was a bad, bad call.

Back back (back!) with tips at the weekend. Go visit "In Golf we Trust". They're good, good people...

Everyone's a winner

2008-09-21T05:50:00.000-07:00

The last day of the Ryder Cup is probably a day for just watching and not trying to pick winners. Probably.

After the last few days, I can't help but feel that Ben Curtis and JB will lose. Poulter will win, as will Hansen, McDowell, Furyk (boo) Leonard and Sergio. The rest are even harder to call.

If it's all on the last, you'd fancy Padraig over Campbell, but the Irishman's form has been patchy by his standards.

Can't fancy the Fat Controller, his driving is just too erratic and he's up against a toughy in Rose.

Likewise not sure about Miguel Angel or Casey. Hoping that Wilson beats the local village idiot and that Stenson beats Perry. Reckon the whole thing hangs on those two. Win and we win. Lose and we'll all be booing. But not in a nice way.

It's a rich man's world

2008-09-07T04:48:00.000-07:00

Money, money, money. I just don't get Betfair sometimes. Don't get me wrong, I love it, but on a course where people are shooting 63 and 64, how can Aaron "Badds" Baddeley be 4 off the lead and 40/1 when Timmy Herron is 3 shots further back with five extra holes to play (he had to finish at the 13th when darkness set in) and yet he's 610/1! Who was the last one to win on tour?

And if you take my Boycott esque theory of taking two shots off the leader (It's Furyk, he's past it) then Sergio is just four behind and he's 200/1. Ridiculous when the fat controller is one shot better and 25/1! And for the trifecta, good old Hunter Mahan. This could be his week. Bloody hope so, he's 400/1! Now.

As they say in Whittlesey...fill your boots!

If I stay it will be double...

2008-09-04T06:42:00.001-07:00

Or of course we could have just parlayed some of our winnings on VJ back on the Fijian to do the double. We didn't. And won't be doing at the BMW. Might have a few bob on Poulter if he turns up though. Talk about a man with a point to prove.

Updates to follow...

The Gambler

2008-09-01T03:30:00.000-07:00

On a day when shooting par sees your picks tumble down the leaderboard faster than a very fast tumbling thing, it's time to regroup. (Yeah...see you Charlie, all the best, it's been good) We missed Villegas yesterday at, yes, 100/1. Ouch. And Weir, Singh, Sergio and even the Big Easy are still in contention so it looks like the bookies will be in clover come end of play tomorrow.

Except. And this is really one for the gamblers. Say Weir and Villegas shoot a couple over tomorrow. Suddenly, the pack are closer and what if one of the guys on 10 or even 9 under overnight go out and shoot a 61 or 62. Sure it's unlikely, but in echoes of previous advice, would you rather have twenty bucks on one of the leaders at 6/1 or worse or a couple of smaller bets on possible winners at ludicrous prices?

Hopefully it's the latter, in which case, let me suggest we start with a guy who's already won and had two seconds on tour this year and who ranks 5th in posting the best final rounds this season. Sitting "just off" the lead at 11 under, ladies and gentlemen, from Japan, Mr Ryuchi Imada. He's a staggering 280/1 on Betfair. I just took the 300's. Briny Baird (crazy name, crazy guy) wouldn't normally tip the needle for me, but he's close to the leaders on 12 under and 120/1. Finally, you can now get 1000/1 on Charlie Wi. I know, just can't resist it and hey! after VJ's win it's their money we're playing with.

So team, small stakes are the go for a bit of fun. Which is more than Monty, Darren Clarke and Paul McGinley will be having this weekend after Faldo picked the local boy. Brave or myopically dumb? We'll find out for sure in a week or two....

What's Going On?

2008-08-30T05:50:00.001-07:00

4 birdies in 4 holes. Hello?

The Birdie Song

2008-08-30T05:48:00.000-07:00

Charlie Wi has birdied the first three holes to go to eight under. Yay. Early days I know but have we got another VJ happening?

The right Charlie?

2008-08-30T03:26:00.000-07:00

It's always good when someone shoots a low score on day one. Whilst they very rarely win, like Mahan last week, for the punter it opens the door for someone at a huge price to shoot the lights out on day two or three en route to the top of the leaderboard. Like Vijay did last week!

As we've said, this is a strong field and after the first round, there's little value at the top. Even on Betfair, it's a very skinny market. Making Singh and Weir 6 to 1 is fine but Antony Kim, who has of course never won on tour, at 16/1?

Having said all that, I'm staggered to find a player on offer at 130/1 who's been in rich form over the last few weeks. tied 4th at 15 under in the John Deere and 9th in the USPGA . He's a champion scrambler who would be a 33/1 shot on form.

His name is Charlie Wi.

Follow you, follow me?

2008-08-27T14:39:00.000-07:00

After the euphoria of last week, back to earth with a bump for the Deutsche Bank. Most eyes including mine will be on Gleneagles this week as the Europeans fight for that last automatic spot. The starting field here is a muddled one. Has Vijay fixed his putting problem? Can Sergio put four rounds of brilliance together? Is Mickelson heading the same way as Monty? Will Padraig just put his foot down on the last day and leave them all trailing? Who knows...

There's no value on the first day with all the players mentioned above trading at under 20/1 as I write. Looking down the field, you mght like the 100/1 about Poulter, who's on a mission to get Fed Ex points cos I guess they're worth a bit more than being in the Ryder Cup. Peter Lonard and Matt Goggin are silly odds at over 200/1 and Rich Beem will win again one day.

But. like last week, I'm going to wait for 36 holes before I pick my 100/1 winner. Stay tuned.

These are the things that dreams are made of!

2008-08-25T06:11:00.000-07:00

How good a feeling when it all comes together.

On Saturday morning, I was musing about the three figure odds on offer for both Singh and Curtis on a course were we'd seen Mahan shoot 8 under on the first day (bizarrely that turned out to be the winning score!).

Two holes of a play off later, having seen both Sergio and Singh holing improbable twenty footers and then the Spaniard getting an even more improbable free drop, Singh's home and hosed and I'm 240 quid better off.

Happy days!

The things that dreams are made of

2008-08-24T00:02:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I tipped Vijay Singh at 100/1. He's in the final group today, one shot behind his partner Kevin Somebody.

Steve Stricker, who was 7/2 yesterday shot 6 over to slip down to four behind. Anyone can win, it's that kind of course. But boy I'll enjoy the measly 5 dollars riding on the Singhmeister.

Go Vijay!

Home on the range?

2008-08-22T22:12:00.000-07:00

Driving ranges are amongst the dullest and most dreary of places, even in Australia. Whether it's the countless young Japanese fanatically tweaking their swings or the bloke with a huge watch and gold bracelet gripping it like a hockey stick, the range is a mental mile or two away from Wentworth or Gleneagles.

But you can learn stuff. Even if you get bored really quickly...the skill is remembering it...

1. Richard Flood was right. Holding the club firmly in the left hand is important. But much more important is fixing your gaze on the ball. It's what John Serhan called waiting for the club. It's the difference between sweet and a pull or a flub.

2. That Harvey Peninck thing about taking dead aim. Makes good sense as well.

3. And the post about Conscious Golf that's hanging around in the ether somewhere. "Just breathe" is basically what it said.

4. Finally the short game. Being afraid of shots that you can hit easy on the range is just dumb. See all three tips above, repeat.

Better, not different...

Hunters and gatherers...

2008-08-22T21:31:00.000-07:00

Phew. I've been tipping Mahan every week for months now and in the week when I'm busy catching up with Weller after 20 years, Hunter finally shoots the lights out, without a dollar of my money to weigh him down. Thank crikey he shot two over today. With low scores a definite chance Kenny Perry is still in the running, as is Sergio, Casey and Cabrera. But with prices of 15/1 the field, including Kim, none of them represent value.

As usual, with two rounds to go, we're going for the three figures. Geoff Boycott used to say that you should add two wickets to any team's score to get a real view of the state of the game and my model is to take three shots off the top two. That leaves the guys on 2 under just 5 off the lead. Nothing on a course where Mahan shot 62. Or where Adam Scott yesterday shot 82. Ouch!

You can get over 100/1 right now on Singh or young Romero, 95/1 on Ben Curtis. Or you could take 5/2 about Stricker. Honestly, what would be the point?

It's all about the short game.

2008-08-11T02:07:00.000-07:00

He doesn't seem to understand the concept of the tournament really starting on the back nine on Sunday afternoon. And boy can he putt. What now for Porridge?

Phew! missed it...

2008-08-08T04:40:00.000-07:00

Maybe it's the euphoria of the Olympics, maybe I'm just clumsy wth the time difference, but I failed to get the blog written before the start of the PGA. I confess I was going to tip Hunter Mahan. He looked good value at 50/1.

He's a much better price now, 1000/1 on betfair after a horrendous 11 over par start. Ouch.

So we're scouting around for picks after a confusing first round. Harrington got off to a flier before the putter let him down so I thought he might be worth a go but at 12/1? Probably still a great bet, but we won't get rich. We'll be waiting until the second round is over for the real action, so stay tuned. One thing I do know though. After a 77 in the opening round, it's not going to be a dream first major for the boy from the bush. Again.

The Open that never was

2008-08-02T23:17:00.000-07:00

In the week before the USPGA, the leaderboard for the WGC tournament at Firestone looks fit for the final round of a major.

Unlike Birkdale, where the top picks were blown away, literally, by the high winds of an English summer, the Bridgestone classic has seen the cream of world golf rising to the top as we move into a tense final round. Sharing the lead at eight under are Mickleson, Westwood and Singh, with Stuart Appleby hovering one shot behind.

Darren Clarke sits further back on five under, having shot a tidy 65, featuring seven birdies to shoot him up from 35th to tied for 6th. The fact that someone can make seven birdies, even on a course that ranked the toughest overall on tour last year, is proof that there's still betting value to be had as we go to the last 18.

Romantics would want Darren Clarke, currently 100/1 with Betfair to win but it's been a while since the Ulsterman was in contention. With so many winners in the field, we'll give him a miss. Mickleson represents terrible value on Betfair at almost evens and on recent form, he's a miss too. You can get 7/2 each of the two other leaders and 8/1 about Appleby, but all the leaders have been wobbly under the hammer this year and I reckon that the value is worth chasing.

Miguel Angel Jimenez was many people's tip for the Open after a run of good form. Four shots off the lead. he's available at an astonishing 85/1 to take home the trophy. Five birdies and five bogeys made for a boring level par score yesterday after shooting 66 in the second round. For the punter who doesn't fancy taking a short price in an open contest, the cigar smoking Spaniard is great value and worth a few dollars to win.

Real punters will also be tempted by a speculative few bucks on Hunter Mahan and Ian Poulter, five behind the leaders but both of whom are currently available through Betfair at over 250/1. Beats the even money about Mickleson for me any day!

Harrington to fire up again in Ohio?

2008-07-31T01:15:00.000-07:00

After the howling winds and biting cold of the so called English summer, the world's greatest golfers travel to Akron Ohio this week for another WGC event at Firestone. Familiar to most of us as a course played on computer games (it's the one with the big golf ball on a giant flagpole), Firestone is one of the longer tracks on the US Tour, with six par fours over 450 yards yet only a rated a par of 70. With one of the two par fives known as the Monster, it was ranked as the most difficult course on the US Tour last year and sure to test the golf game of even this elite field.

Normally, this event wouldn't be a great betting proposition with a certain Mr Woods usually marked up at a very short price. He's won here six times in eight starts after all. But famously, he's not here this week, so the door's wide open for everyone else to help themself to a share of the dollars and importantly the WGC points on offer.

Three tips against the field this week include a man at the top of his and the world's game, a very boring form choice plus a nicely priced outsider with a hint of form.

I can't not tip Padraig Harrington after the way he won at Birkdale. The three wood into 17 was enough on its own but I was struck by the beaming smile and obvious enjoyment on his face coming down the stretch. He played flawless golf racking up five threes in the last eight holes in the Open and there's no reason why he can't keep it going. With no Tiger (or even Greg Norman, who's having a tilt at the US Seniors) to worry about, he could easily run away with this and he's an absolute steal in my book at the 20/1 on offer.

The obvious form choice is Stewart Cink, winner of this event in 2004 and enjoying his best season ever with a win in the Travellers Championship plus two seconds and a couple of thirds already this year. He's on his way to the highest season winnings of his career and sure to be a thorn in the side of the European team come the Ryder Cup. Like Furyk, it's hard to warm to Cink but as a form pick you can't leave him out. Unlike Mickleson who seemed lost and disinterested at Loch Lomond and worse at Birkdale.

Searching through the field for a good each way chance, I'm keen to have a few bucks on Ryan Palmer. He's had a top ten finish at this event before and he's been there or thereabouts this year and currently ranked at 30th in driving distance. He's good value each way at three figure odds and a good bet to make the cut.

Recommended staking guide:
Harrington: 5 points win, 2 points place
Cink: 3 points win
Palmer: 1 point win and place

Betting without the stripey one

2007-04-01T03:35:00.000-07:00

Magnolia Lane, Augusta Georgia. Scene of a thousand cliches. Amen Corner. Ugly fast food restaurants line the streeets. Members badges are rarer than the rarest of hen's teeth. Drinks cups are green, the water's dyed blue. Winner gets to choose the menu (Tiger must be running short on ideas by now). Bigger than Easter, it's the Masters and any right minded golfnut is setting the alarm clock and ready to go for four days of unmissable TV.

Tiger will win, obviously, but from a punting point of view, we're really keen on the "betting without the big five" market from Betfair and have made a very late New Year's resolution to pick some fresh faces for this year.

There's no way that Adam Scott, Sergio, Weir and Immelman/Sabbatini (always get them mixed up) can win, even if they're two or three ahead with a few to go. Less bottle between them than your average new fangled dairy. There's a whole bunch of faceless Yanks who won't win, Howell III, Campbell and Henry to name three. Loads more losers I can;t be bothered to type...just look at the last few Ryder Cup teams for clues.

I reckon we're looking at an overseas winner this year, but unless Vijay finds his old putter, think it might be a first time major winner.

Henrik Stenson is quietly becoming one of the worlds best. Holing the winnning putt in the ryder cup was good, but as WORLD MATCHPLAY CHAMPION he must have something. He still doesn't have the profile he deserves, (a bit like the mighty Kevin Morgan who was again the best XV in the 6 nations)but that just means better prices for us. Must be a chance.

Ditto for Geoff Ogilvy. Way overpriced when compared to his Burberry wearing choking fellow countryman. We'll hope for 80/1 or more.

And whilst real outsiders aren't really the go at the Masters, Kenny Ferrie at 1000/1 now is worth a penny of any currency and of course the Howler at 250/1 tooo good to miss...by the way, smudge the ticket and you can be on David Howell and Charles Howell III...your local Corals won't know...

We'll probably put a few quid on Fred...for old times sake...

Bring it on...

Have you heard the one about...

2007-01-17T03:14:00.000-08:00

...the golf tipster who started his year with tipping the Bob Hope Classic?. No Tiger, No Vijay, No Michelle Wie. Let's have a look at the Honours board for the last few years. Perhaps we'll have a few of the hard earned on Andrew Magee or David Bergianio Jr? (who he?). Dammit, even Jesper Parnevik did well here last year when Chad Campbell lumbered to victory.

It's the Bob Hope, it's a New Year, so let's start with comedy names. The whole thing's a lottery. All you can be sure of is that Bill Murray will be hilarious. Ooh my sides...

In the name of comedy if nothing else, have a few quid on one of golf's great new names. Ladies and Gentlemen I give you Mr Boo Weekley. He's not a rookie but has been on the Nationwide Tour. And it's really funny that his name sounds like Lara Bingle's favourite men's magazine. (Imagine if his wife was called Soo?) Honestly, we don't know much else about the Boomeister. The best the PGA website can give is that he's 6 foot and right handed. Go Boo!

Picking a real winner here is tough as ever. There's no real form, the fat Controller is predictably clear favourite having won here a few times and even Betfair are chalking up people like John Senden at 30/1 based on a top 6 finish in 2005. Even Jesper's only 40/1...

So we'll obviously have a dab on Fred at the 100/1 on offer and despite NY resolutions will take the 95/1 on JB. Our long shot money goes on the man who is leading greens in regulation and has the experieince and patience to get the job done, Kirk Triplett. Look out for that bucket hat being raised come Sunday arvo. You can get 140/1 at time of writing. Small change only, we're saying. Welcome back!

keeping the dream alive

2006-08-15T03:28:00.000-07:00

Two certainties this week. Someone, possibly many people will tip Adam Scott, Jim Furyk and Sergio to win at Medinah. Many will remember Sergio's epic battle with Tiger seven years ago. I wonder if they remember who won?

Tiger will win again this week. Medinah might be long but the word from the course is that most of the length is in the par fives. And with the average driving distance these days pushing 290, even the longest par fours are nought but a smooth 6 iron away for most of the field. 2 putts, par. Simple really.

We're putting all our time into Betfair's excellent "betting without the top five" market which means no ernie, vijay, tiger, furyk and good old phil, the man who puts the "big" in big five. We're betting as if these guys haven't turned up. Bit like really fancy each way odds...

Here's our top picks:

Rod Pampling is currently 70/1. Bang in form with a string of good finishes, he's one of the first names on our team sheet.

David Howell has had a quiet few weeks after blazing good form saw him win the prestigious PGA championship at Wentworth. He's been in the USA acclimatizing and whilst down the field at the end of the Mickey Mouse Invitational stableford nonsense last week he did shoot plus 12 (whatever that means) in the final round. Howler is 50/1 without the big five, 80/1 without Woods. For the current clear leader of the European tour money list, that's a silly price and almost 50% better than what they'll offer on Monty. Very confident he'll be grinding it out come Sunday.

Can't get away from Nathan Green. Still can't see him actually winning in his rookie year, but he only has to beat everybody but the top five and Betfair will give you 150/1.

I'm also interested in the double figure odds on the following usual suspects to finish in the top ten. JB, Fred, Broadhurst, Ferrie and Senden. And I can't miss the 46/1 about Dougherty to finish in the top 10. He's won on tour and...well what would you rather have...46/1 Nicky D to finish in the top ten or Adam Scott to win with the TAB at 25/1?

SportsBet of the week: TAB treble on Little Stranger at the Gold Coast races, Saturday, Tiger Woods and the All Blacks ht/ft double. Then take your winnings to Warwick Farm next Wednesday. I know I will be. Pip Pip!

singing: "I have a dream, la la la la..."

2006-07-21T02:14:00.000-07:00

I did indeed have a dream. On Sunday afternoon, we will be watching Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, The Fist Pumper, and Goose battle out the last few holes of the Open. Woods will win, probably birdieing three of the last four but not until Graeme Mc Dowell and Sergio (he's only 26 you know) have shone brightly. Go and find a bookie who's offering a price on the first four. I know it'll happen but I can't bring myself to do it as I still think one of my three figure specials is going to do a "Todd".

Adam Scott, my friends, "can't win". There, that should do it.

Give us the longshots!

2006-07-18T03:50:00.000-07:00

We're buried under an avalanche of emails here at Golftipster Towers, one from a Mrs Trellis of North Wales and another from "CJ", who wrote to say "I didn't get where I am today by tipping short priced favourites!..ludicrously long priced outsiders chosen through laughably thin "research"...that's what the public wants!

Who am I to argue. I think Tiger will win at Hoylake...there's four par fives so he's virtually 16 under already. I'm worried as usual that the Fat Controller's wife and kids will be running onto the eighteenth come Sunday night in another of those USA apple pie moments. But let's not let any of that spoil our punting fun!

There's no value in backing Monty or Howler. Although if you were one of the smarties who backed Kenny Ferrie before (or whilst he was in the middle of) his obvious form showing at Loch Lomond, you may have a great 500/1 e/w ticket current burning a hole in your proverbial. Like me. For the rest of you, here goes a few against the field:

PAUL BROADHURST. He's a Brummie, but he's won here a number of times and he's in the second summer of his career having already won this year in Portugal. With a couple of good finishes under his belt over recent weeks, he'll have this earmarked as the highlight of his season (barring a return to Ryder Cup action). He's on offer at 50/1 a place, kings ransom for a win. Got to be worth a few of whatever it is you spend in the country you call home

ROD PAMPLING. Everybody's famous for one thing according to the Rocking Vicar and whilst everybody knows that Rod Stewart used to dig graves and David Bowie has different coloured eyes, golf bores know that Pamps led at Carnoustie a few years ago only to shoot 86 in round two and tragically miss the cut. He's a much better player than that and has a US Tour win against the A grade at Bay Hill, so he's definitely worth the three figure quote that's out there.

J B HOLMES. Well stranger things have happened. the words "Todd" and "Hamilton" come to mind, closely followed by "Ben" and "Curtis". He's 300/1 fercrissakes..

I won't be at Hoylake. Important business to attend, but will be watching on the other side of the world in the middle of the night. But good luck to all who do go, especially GT visitors and dear friends Mr. Andy and Mr Wenty-Ping. Hope you all have a fabulous time. Pip Pip!

No good at links golf!

2006-07-14T19:03:00.000-07:00

We're back (back!) and eagerly looking forward to the Open at Hoylake. We're going to give the Scottish Open a miss for sentimental reasons, but form already suggests that we might be looking at a local winner in the big one next week. I think Els is in the field here and saw Goosen plodding along just now, but the form horses are all Brits. In fact, the best bet for the week is going to again be betfair's "betting without the favourite" market, if only because it knocks Woods and his overweight compatriot out of the market.

Monty! he's apparently no good at links golf (2nd in last years open, used to LIVE at Troon) but we're still very impressed with the way he's swinging and he sounded confident and upbeat yesterday. He's staying at his dad's place this week and then making the short journey down to Liverpool. Back him.

And back Howler too. He's struggling to make the cut in Scotland but he can't be written off.

We must not, repeat must not chase outsiders in the Open. They never win, except Todd Hamilton and Ben Curtis of course. So we definitely won't be taking the three figures on offer about JBH, Philip Price and Nathan Green.

Time to turn to the Booze, Alun?

2006-06-21T14:36:00.000-07:00

Ah me. After four hours of white knuckle fingers crossed, will he won't he, it was hard to smile at Monty's anguished "what sort of a shot was that" when he failed to make a simple par to win his first major. Boo.

In fact, if ever there was a good time to give up the punt, it's this week. All of the form horses are taking a rest in the US, including Rory Sabbatini who has won and finished top three at TPC Avenel twice in the last four years. Padraig is favourite this week and a neat summary of the strength of the field is that the best price you can get for rookie John Senden is 50/1. Maybe that'll look like value in four days time. Doubt it.

Our tiny, tiny investments this week go to a few old favourites and a proven winner. They are grinners after all. Brian Davis is a straight hitter and should enjoy this tight course. We still think he's a class above and with Avenel historically throwing up low scores, Goldfingers might just oblige at 100/1, as might JB. Can't not take the three figure odds.

Out of the weird box this week, we've taken the 270/1 about Chris Couch. He's won before, the majority of this lot haven't and er, that's it.

Low stakes people, save it up for the Howler at the Open. You can get 30/1 now.....

He's back, we're back back back!

2006-06-15T04:37:00.000-07:00

Mmm...US Open. Tight fairways, heavy rough, umbrellas for goalposts isn't it?

We're back (back) and this time we mean business. We're going to discount most of the field now as nobody is going to shoot 64 to lap the leaders. We have already backed Monty in the brilliant Betfair "betting without the top 6" market and also had a few bob on Ollie. God knows our fingers are also nervously crossed about the very small bet on one of the golftipsters favourites, geordie boy Kenny Ferrie. Unbelievably, he was still 300/1 with betfair last night and with the fearless punting skill we're known for, we plunged $2 more on our friend from the North

Scott has choked very early (see ya!) and will catch a plane home with Woods, Campbell, Els and Phil Taturangi and unless our boy does the business, we're facing the horrifying prospect of a final day pairing of Furyk and Mickleson. At least they'll prove Eddie McGuire right, even Jessica Roe is better than that!

Whilst the value has gone now, we're keeping eveything crossed for what could be a dramatic first major for one of our favourite golfers. He's pretty well drawn for Saturday with Stricker who'll probably shoot 78 whilst leaving Monty in peace up the middle of the fairway.

Go Monty!

The real golf season starts here?

2006-05-24T04:16:00.000-07:00

The expat romantic in me can't get over years of watching the PGA Championship from Wentworth. It's the start proper of the UK sporting summer, usually followed by the first Lords test and then before you know it, we're into the Open championship, the greatest tournament in golf. Wentworth is almost as famous as Augusta to the Brits and has the same telegenic qualities, beautiful, challenging and best of all, with two par fives to finish.

This year's field boasts eight (count em) major winners, although that does include Ben Curtis and Paul Lawrie and this year the course has been tweaked (is nothing sacred?) by none other than Theodore Ernest Els. Which is why it's a shame that they are having a terrible spell of bad weather at the moment and this week looks no better. Starting on a Friday, the tournament organisers are hoping that the clouds will at least have cleared by the weekend.

All our tips this week are people who have been brought up playing golf in really crap conditions. Step forward the massed ranks of Celtic golfers!

We really like Darren Clarke's chances this week. After his much publicised honesty (and a six at the last that cost him a home win), it would be instant karma if the golfing gods let hin win here. Of course he's got the game, he knows the course as he's got a house there (as have half the field), and whilst he's not a generous price, he'll be there on the last day.

You'll get much bigger odds on a US Tour player who grew up in one of the world's rainiest towns. Recently back on the European circuit, Philip Price is from Pontypridd, famous for being the birthplace of Tom Jones and goal kicking machine Neil Jenkins and easily the wettest place I have ever lived. Pricey had a tough time in the USA after doing brilliantly at tour school and he's ridiculous value at 300/1 with Betfair. He's very solid and might have his eye on a late run towards Ryder Cup points following his singles win over Amy's husband last time round.

We'll not be taking prices on some of the people who have blown winning positions over the last few weeks, especially Scott and Immelman, who are both being tipped by some of our competitors, but we might have a few bob on old favourite Monty if we can get three figure odds. We'll be looking to back all three to finish in the first ten. Friday start, don't forget. Hope it blows a gale!

Show me the money (at last)

2006-05-24T04:08:00.000-07:00

Well it's been a while since we tipped JB at 190/1 and whilst the money won't run out for many, many weeks, it was great to collect on Nathan Green finishing in the top 10 last week. Betfair offered a very generous 20/1 in a poor field and whilst we were disappointed not to collect on the 370/1 bet we laid for him to win, a win is indeed "a win".

After seeing another huge outsider end up as last man standing whilst all around him chucked the tournament away, this week we'll be focusing on the beautiful West Course at Wentworth, rather than try to pick a winner from the worst field of the US Tour for years. Stay tuned for an update and news from the course.

The loneliness of the long price punter?

2006-05-17T14:41:00.000-07:00

Winless again. Just like the so called favourites of the last few weeks (months!) we're struggling to find any form lines in this crazy world of $6MILLION purses for tournaments where none of the worl'd top five bother to turn up. Whilst Weitterich, Couch et al help themselves to the gazillions of dollars on offer, our list of people who "can't win" continues to grow. What's Adam Scott's excuse? Immelman? They're both off our list for a while...

This week we go to Texas. The Colonial has one weird formline, in that it's often won by what we could call ahem "older players". Kenny Perry has won here twice in the last three years, last year winning by seven shots. He must be backed, even though it might seem like a bit of a pyrrhic victory (down the stretch he was battling against Billy Mayfair and Joe Durant) as a seven shot win over course and distance is not to be sniffed at.

Fred Couples missed the cut last week but he shot 72, 70, so that's hardly a tragic two days at the office. He always plays well in Texas and we can't resist him in a field like this.

It was good to see Brian Davis shoot 65 on the last day at the Byron Nelson, but he's not here this week. Still think he'll be our next J B Holmes!

The rest of the field is a lottery so we're going to change tack and start playing with Betfair's fabulous offer of paying out on a top ten finish. (Ideal for when you want to back Adam Scott next time after 54 holes). We've taken odds of between 8 and 10 to 1 about Fred Couples (old) and Camillo Villegas (not old) and huge odds about three of our favourites, Nathan Green (winner), Rich Beem (the new John Daly) and best of all, last year's tied sixth, Scott Hend. He's 530/1 to win with betfair, so we couldn't help ourselves.

Three weeks till the US Open. Promise we'll take it all more seriously by then...Go Hendy!

Jim Furyk favourite?

2006-05-11T03:06:00.000-07:00

Gritty, Gutsy, other words starting with "G", all being used by journo's all over the world to describe Jim Furyk's 11th tour win at the Wachovia (it's a bank!) last week. We're never surprised to see Jim Furyk win but we're definitely a little taken aback to see that he is favourite to back up at this week at the Byron Nelson. Favourite? With that swing?...

We've been away but we're back (back!) and shedding few tears about missing Chris Couch (who he) and his maiden win on tour. Well done Chris. Goodness knows how much dosh we would have wasted assuming you'd blow it down the stretch. Phew.

This week we're on familiar territory at the Byron Nelson, one of the tour's most regular venues. Unlike previous years this years field hasn't attracted the top five in the money list (hence Furyk being favourite) but despite stellar fields every year, this is a tournament with more than a smattering of surprise winners. From Ted Purdy's maiden win last year (1 from 172) to Robert Damron gifting the 2004 prize to Sergio in a play off, this tournament has also seen Shigeiki Maruyama's finest hour, so I guess we'll be ripping the form book up. Again.

If there is one thing you can say about winners of this tournament, they're probably hitting it straighter than average and they'd need to shoot 15 under or better to win. Stuart Appleby flew out of the gates last year with an opening 63, proving that low scores are out there and both Singh and Purdy, the eventual winner shot 65 on the final afternoon.

Whenever someone asks for straight, we always lean to Luke Donald. A proven winner on tour, he's an obvious pick and has had the benefit of a few weeks away from the tour. It's a Ryder Cup year and he'll be keen to cement his position in the team, presumably as a captains pick. Currently available at 28/1, good value and we'll be having a few dollars on.

As we will on JB. For 150 good reasons. Yes, we know he's gone off a little since his first win, but again, this is a relatively poor field and he's just so long, any course that rewards length and he has to come into consideration. Go J.B.Holmes. We need the money...

Journeyman's easiest chance to make a few mill?

2006-04-20T05:09:00.000-07:00

Friends. We may not have any money left after the last few weeks, but we're looking forward to the Houston Open, surely?

There's no relief for punters as we turn up to another completely new layout, this one being a 7,400 yard plus monster. It's a pay as you play course that David Toms had a hand in designing and not, repeat NOT the same track that Vijay has won on three times in the last four years.

It'll be another punters graveyeard as a whole heap of tour pros look forward to one of those weeks with no Tiger, Els, Sergio, Phil etc. In fact, the field this week is so thin that Freddie Jacobsen and Vaughan Taylor both feature in the top ten of betting although they are playing for a staggering $4.4 million in prize money.

Still fancy a punt? Still bonkers? OK, here goes...

Once again tipsters say we need to look for people who can smack the ball a long way. So inevitably they are putting up Daly, Glover and Bubba Watson. Others are taking the rather obvious step of making Vijay favourite. The UK bookmakers are apparently taking money at 4/1. If that seems like a good idea, stop reading this and go for it. But all those choices are based on form on a different course and none of them have shown a likelihood to win recently. We're especially worried that Vijay won on a different course last year and still nervous about that putting stroke. He's the stand out player on class alone but 8 bogeys and 3 doubles during the last three rounds at the Masters isn't a great form line. We'll give him a miss this week.

It was good to see Stephen Leaney finish strong last week, with one of the best closing rounds of 68 netting him a $103,000 paycheck. On a difficult day for scoring, one shot worse would have seen him blow 26 grand, so perhaps he's starting to find some form. His driving stats show that he's by no means the longest but he's in the top drawer in terms of accuracy and we reckon you'd be expecting at least 33/1 a place, so go find some value.

Another of our wild card small field favourites Rich Beem tees it up this week. A very respectable Masters performance suggests he's on top of his form. You can never risk anything other than small stakes on the ex telephone salesman, but he does whack it a long way and unlike the majority of this field, he's got three tour wins under his belt. Once again, we're looking for three figure odds here and have everything crossed.

still going...

2006-04-13T21:49:00.000-07:00

This looks like it might be a nice few days ahead. JB started like the proverbial with 5 early birdies in the first five and then dropped a shot on the short 6th, after three putting. Know that feeling.

Brian Davis had his usual 5 birdies and three bogeys and sits hidden in the pack at 2 under. This course really suits Brian and if he can just eliminate the bogeys, we could be on for a nice payday. There's still lots of value around and you can get on now if you're not on already.

Nathan Green is struggling to regain his form of the early season, but a 67 or 68 tomorrow should see him join us for the weekend. And that's when the fun starts. Good luck team.

Let's get excited about Hilton Head!

2006-04-12T05:09:00.000-07:00

Well done Phil from everybody who got their free Callaways! Can we move on before we have to run pictures of Amy and the kids?

Hilton Head is a golf course that has two claims to fame. Firstly, it's on every golf computer game (well both the ones that we play anyway) and secondly it's the venue for the tournament after the Masters. Not the hugest claims to fame admittedly, but it's definitely a few notches up from the local muni.

The MCI Heritage, now known as the Verizon heritage is a graveyard for Masters form. Won last year by Peter Lonard, it's a seaside links type course, short and featuring small greens. It's as far from Augusta as it's possible to get. Understandably, therefore, it's very rare for players to carry their form through from the Masters and in our tipping this week, we'll run the risk of completely ignoring Tim Clark, Jose Maria and tournament favourite Ernie Els.

We're looking for someone who is fresh, can play well on tight courses that reward good iron play and has a track record on seaside links.

First up on our list to consider is Brian Davis. Known for his silky smooth and enviable swing, his first tournament win many, many years ago was the Jersey Open and serving his apprenticeship in Europe before (lest we forget) winning Tour school last year, he's got the all round ball striking skills. Sure he's one of our favourites, but he'll have enjoyed the recent easy schedule and with no Tiger or Phil, well hey! We think that this is Brian's type of course and we love the 250/1 that's on offer with Betfair.

Talking of tour school winners, we reckon that J B Holmes is a great bet when the big boys are having a rest. JB missed out on the Masters and again the rest can only have done him some good. It's his first year on tour, so he's got no obvious course history, but as we all know, he has won already, streeting the field at the FBR open, having finished 10th in the wind at Hawaii on his first tour start. He's scond in driving distance, which on a short course means he'll be hitting very short irons into most of the par fours. We're convinced he's a star in the making and this is a great week to be getting a three figure quote on his chances.

Our final choice in this furiously tough week is another player with form on the board who failed to get a go at Augusta. Nathan Green has also won already this year and boasts plenty of form from his Aussie tour days of windy links golf. He grew up playing the tough NSW coastal courses and now that he's dicovered the secret of putting (he leads the tour putting stats as we write) he's too good to overlook at 100/1 plus. We caddied in a three ball with him last year and can report that he's a very solid, "fairways and greens" man.

Let's be honest, it's a lottery, but with all three paying well over 100/1 it's a good chance for some fun bets. We probably favour JB, but back all three and hope they last longer than Daly.

What price will they go?

2006-04-07T18:03:00.000-07:00

OK. Forget Daly, Monty and Choi...although we were right about DiMarco at least...the key question for the next 20 hours until the markets are "in play" again is "what price will the bookmakers push Tiger out to?"

As we write, the price on Betfair is $5.50, Centrebet are going $4.50 and the NSW TAB site is stuck...well it is Saturday...god they're useless. The minute we see a 6 against Tiger Woods name on Betfair, we're piling in. Sure he's scratchy, but as we all know, tomorrow is "moving day" and surely he'll be chasing eagles at what has become the easy part of the course on 13 and 15.

Interested to see whether the US TV networks devote any time to the stellar final pairing of Mediate and Campbell when Fred and Tiger are in contention, but whatever happens we'll be hoping to see a glimpse of the dark horse Darren Clarke. Bolters from the pack might include Steven Ames, who five days ago wasn't even playing and of course Ernie Els who's quietly going about his business.

Double up on Garcia?

2006-04-05T03:37:00.000-07:00

OK. So we're meant to be a serious source of insider knowledge for the golf punter. So I apologise for this in advance. Especially if you don't live in Australia.

This weekend "down under" is not just Masters weekend, but also the first of the horse racing carnivals and keen eyed punters will know that Gai Waterhouse's horse Diego Garcia is vying for favouritism in the Golden Slipper.

So could it be a Sergio and Diego Garcia double? We did tell you yesterday that Sergio was apparently looking for a doctor to get some urgent X rays, so common sense says we should be giving him a very wide berth.

But paying over 100/1 we'll all kick ourselves if we miss out (and anyway common sense is over rated). So we've had a go. For $5....

(I wonder if there's a horse in this weekend's English Grand National with the name Garcia as well?.. Answers on a postcard please.)

More news from Augusta as the USA wakes up to Par 3 day...

Can Monty win the Masters?

2006-04-04T04:02:00.001-07:00

It's Masters week and the world's greatest golfers are facing an Augusta course that once again promises to be tougher than before and longer than before. This year's news is that they've even allowed some rough to grow! The "new" Augusta is now the second longest course on Tour and with the prospect of having to hit long irons into treacherously small targets, it's really not a week for playing safe with a 3 wood up the middle.

Nicklaus says that real tournament golf only properly starts on the back nine of a Major. That's possibly most true of the Masters and every year, come Sunday afternoon, the proverbial golfing cream always rises to the top.

Whilst we normally dedicate our lives to finding the big priced outsider this is a week to enjoy a feast of TV golf and some unusually "sensible" punting.

This week's stand out!

Our betting guide starts, inevitably, with a certain Mr Tiger Woods.

Since the book on the Masters opened a year ago, Tiger has been the clear favourite, he's the defending champion and in racing parlance, four time winner over "course and distance". Last year he started at 5/1 favourite and despite shooting 76 on day one, still got up to finish first over Chris 'pumping fist" Di Marco.

Despite personal family issues, his season to date will have been timed to peak here and even at a short price Tiger simply cannot be opposed and should be backed to win. If you can get 5/1 anywhere in the world have a few shillings on for us....

Our sporting selections

Tiger being such a short price pretty much makes everybody else good value...For all of our selections, take the eachway price, especially with Betfair who pay on the first five and do look for bookies betting "without the favourite". Then, if Tiger streaks away, admire his golf and still collect as your man finishes a distant second, just like our members did when Monty netted us a beautiful 80/1 payday at St Andrews, despite finishing runner up to you know who....

I'd dearly love to see Colin Montgomerie win at Augusta. He's had a few difficult years, but last year's Ryder Cup showed that the locals have grown to love him and he's a much better player when he's smiling. He'll have spent the Winter planning for this and with his new lease of life and being a proven clutch putter on fast greens, I rate him the best outsider at 3 figure odds. He'd be a hugely popular winner on both sides of the Atlantic and the perfect start to a Ryder Cup year.

Luke Donald is a popular tip and a fine finishing round of 66 last week has set him up for a tilt at the big one. His long iron play is top drawer and whilst he's a little shorter than many off the tee, with each win under his belt he continues to mature. He's on many journo shortlists because of his 3rd place finish here last year. I just worry that the bookies have his number and would like to see at least 40/1 to put value into the each way.

K J Choi was 3rd here in the year that Mickelson won and 15th the year before. I'll not be at all surprised to see his name on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon and he's well priced at 50/1. Just not sure he can actually win, but 10/1 a place is worth having as insurance.

The punters choice for this week has to be someone who:

a) hits it a long way

b) can putt

c) knows how to win.

It's a huge leap of faith, but long John Daly fits all three criteria and in the month of his forteith birthday and no doubt with Ryder Cup points on his mind, he's sure to be trying! Well for the first few holes anyway. He's got a late start on Thursday with two lesser lights in Jason Bohn and Carl Pettersen. Let's hope his mind is on his game and we could be in for a roller coaster ride.

With even the Aussie TAB skinflints offering 250/1 there's great value and fun to be had in backing the big man...For small stakes!

Kiss of death

Sergio Garcia was asking if anybody knew a local doctor after play on Sunday, so cannot be backed with confidence. The same applies for Chris Di Marco, who I'm told is still troubled by that rib injury. Stuart Appleby, meanwhile has an appalling record at Augusta even without Hensby's press conferences to worry about and he'll be happy to make the cut. I've no idea what to say about Adam Scott, who surely must win again somewhere soon, but having blown a great start just two weeks ago, I'd be surprised to see him feature here and for the punter he represents terrible value at 25/1.

As for Rory Sabbatini, if he did win, his wife would probably want to have something printed on the jacket, so let's hope he wins the par-three comp, which as every hack journo knows means he won't be wearing the green jacket come Sunday.

We'll be watching at the crack of dawn "down under"...can't wait.

GOOD PUNTING EVERYONE

The Golf Tipster