keeping the dream alive

Two certainties this week. Someone, possibly many people will tip Adam Scott, Jim Furyk and Sergio to win at Medinah. Many will remember Sergio's epic battle with Tiger seven years ago. I wonder if they remember who won?

Tiger will win again this week. Medinah might be long but the word from the course is that most of the length is in the par fives. And with the average driving distance these days pushing 290, even the longest par fours are nought but a smooth 6 iron away for most of the field. 2 putts, par. Simple really.

We're putting all our time into Betfair's excellent "betting without the top five" market which means no ernie, vijay, tiger, furyk and good old phil, the man who puts the "big" in big five. We're betting as if these guys haven't turned up. Bit like really fancy each way odds...

Here's our top picks:

Rod Pampling is currently 70/1. Bang in form with a string of good finishes, he's one of the first names on our team sheet.

David Howell has had a quiet few weeks after blazing good form saw him win the prestigious PGA championship at Wentworth. He's been in the USA acclimatizing and whilst down the field at the end of the Mickey Mouse Invitational stableford nonsense last week he did shoot plus 12 (whatever that means) in the final round. Howler is 50/1 without the big five, 80/1 without Woods. For the current clear leader of the European tour money list, that's a silly price and almost 50% better than what they'll offer on Monty. Very confident he'll be grinding it out come Sunday.

Can't get away from Nathan Green. Still can't see him actually winning in his rookie year, but he only has to beat everybody but the top five and Betfair will give you 150/1.

I'm also interested in the double figure odds on the following usual suspects to finish in the top ten. JB, Fred, Broadhurst, Ferrie and Senden. And I can't miss the 46/1 about Dougherty to finish in the top 10. He's won on tour and...well what would you rather have...46/1 Nicky D to finish in the top ten or Adam Scott to win with the TAB at 25/1?

SportsBet of the week: TAB treble on Little Stranger at the Gold Coast races, Saturday, Tiger Woods and the All Blacks ht/ft double. Then take your winnings to Warwick Farm next Wednesday. I know I will be. Pip Pip!

singing: "I have a dream, la la la la..."

I did indeed have a dream. On Sunday afternoon, we will be watching Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, The Fist Pumper, and Goose battle out the last few holes of the Open. Woods will win, probably birdieing three of the last four but not until Graeme Mc Dowell and Sergio (he's only 26 you know) have shone brightly. Go and find a bookie who's offering a price on the first four. I know it'll happen but I can't bring myself to do it as I still think one of my three figure specials is going to do a "Todd".

Adam Scott, my friends, "can't win". There, that should do it.

Give us the longshots!

We're buried under an avalanche of emails here at Golftipster Towers, one from a Mrs Trellis of North Wales and another from "CJ", who wrote to say "I didn't get where I am today by tipping short priced favourites!..ludicrously long priced outsiders chosen through laughably thin "research"...that's what the public wants!

Who am I to argue. I think Tiger will win at Hoylake...there's four par fives so he's virtually 16 under already. I'm worried as usual that the Fat Controller's wife and kids will be running onto the eighteenth come Sunday night in another of those USA apple pie moments. But let's not let any of that spoil our punting fun!

There's no value in backing Monty or Howler. Although if you were one of the smarties who backed Kenny Ferrie before (or whilst he was in the middle of) his obvious form showing at Loch Lomond, you may have a great 500/1 e/w ticket current burning a hole in your proverbial. Like me. For the rest of you, here goes a few against the field:

PAUL BROADHURST. He's a Brummie, but he's won here a number of times and he's in the second summer of his career having already won this year in Portugal. With a couple of good finishes under his belt over recent weeks, he'll have this earmarked as the highlight of his season (barring a return to Ryder Cup action). He's on offer at 50/1 a place, kings ransom for a win. Got to be worth a few of whatever it is you spend in the country you call home

ROD PAMPLING. Everybody's famous for one thing according to the Rocking Vicar and whilst everybody knows that Rod Stewart used to dig graves and David Bowie has different coloured eyes, golf bores know that Pamps led at Carnoustie a few years ago only to shoot 86 in round two and tragically miss the cut. He's a much better player than that and has a US Tour win against the A grade at Bay Hill, so he's definitely worth the three figure quote that's out there.

J B HOLMES. Well stranger things have happened. the words "Todd" and "Hamilton" come to mind, closely followed by "Ben" and "Curtis". He's 300/1 fercrissakes..

I won't be at Hoylake. Important business to attend, but will be watching on the other side of the world in the middle of the night. But good luck to all who do go, especially GT visitors and dear friends Mr. Andy and Mr Wenty-Ping. Hope you all have a fabulous time. Pip Pip!

No good at links golf!

We're back (back!) and eagerly looking forward to the Open at Hoylake. We're going to give the Scottish Open a miss for sentimental reasons, but form already suggests that we might be looking at a local winner in the big one next week. I think Els is in the field here and saw Goosen plodding along just now, but the form horses are all Brits. In fact, the best bet for the week is going to again be betfair's "betting without the favourite" market, if only because it knocks Woods and his overweight compatriot out of the market.

Monty! he's apparently no good at links golf (2nd in last years open, used to LIVE at Troon) but we're still very impressed with the way he's swinging and he sounded confident and upbeat yesterday. He's staying at his dad's place this week and then making the short journey down to Liverpool. Back him.

And back Howler too. He's struggling to make the cut in Scotland but he can't be written off.

We must not, repeat must not chase outsiders in the Open. They never win, except Todd Hamilton and Ben Curtis of course. So we definitely won't be taking the three figures on offer about JBH, Philip Price and Nathan Green.

Time to turn to the Booze, Alun?

Ah me. After four hours of white knuckle fingers crossed, will he won't he, it was hard to smile at Monty's anguished "what sort of a shot was that" when he failed to make a simple par to win his first major. Boo.

In fact, if ever there was a good time to give up the punt, it's this week. All of the form horses are taking a rest in the US, including Rory Sabbatini who has won and finished top three at TPC Avenel twice in the last four years. Padraig is favourite this week and a neat summary of the strength of the field is that the best price you can get for rookie John Senden is 50/1. Maybe that'll look like value in four days time. Doubt it.

Our tiny, tiny investments this week go to a few old favourites and a proven winner. They are grinners after all. Brian Davis is a straight hitter and should enjoy this tight course. We still think he's a class above and with Avenel historically throwing up low scores, Goldfingers might just oblige at 100/1, as might JB. Can't not take the three figure odds.

Out of the weird box this week, we've taken the 270/1 about Chris Couch. He's won before, the majority of this lot haven't and er, that's it.

Low stakes people, save it up for the Howler at the Open. You can get 30/1 now.....

He's back, we're back back back!

Mmm...US Open. Tight fairways, heavy rough, umbrellas for goalposts isn't it?

We're back (back) and this time we mean business. We're going to discount most of the field now as nobody is going to shoot 64 to lap the leaders. We have already backed Monty in the brilliant Betfair "betting without the top 6" market and also had a few bob on Ollie. God knows our fingers are also nervously crossed about the very small bet on one of the golftipsters favourites, geordie boy Kenny Ferrie. Unbelievably, he was still 300/1 with betfair last night and with the fearless punting skill we're known for, we plunged $2 more on our friend from the North

Scott has choked very early (see ya!) and will catch a plane home with Woods, Campbell, Els and Phil Taturangi and unless our boy does the business, we're facing the horrifying prospect of a final day pairing of Furyk and Mickleson. At least they'll prove Eddie McGuire right, even Jessica Roe is better than that!

Whilst the value has gone now, we're keeping eveything crossed for what could be a dramatic first major for one of our favourite golfers. He's pretty well drawn for Saturday with Stricker who'll probably shoot 78 whilst leaving Monty in peace up the middle of the fairway.

Go Monty!

The real golf season starts here?

The expat romantic in me can't get over years of watching the PGA Championship from Wentworth. It's the start proper of the UK sporting summer, usually followed by the first Lords test and then before you know it, we're into the Open championship, the greatest tournament in golf. Wentworth is almost as famous as Augusta to the Brits and has the same telegenic qualities, beautiful, challenging and best of all, with two par fives to finish.

This year's field boasts eight (count em) major winners, although that does include Ben Curtis and Paul Lawrie and this year the course has been tweaked (is nothing sacred?) by none other than Theodore Ernest Els. Which is why it's a shame that they are having a terrible spell of bad weather at the moment and this week looks no better. Starting on a Friday, the tournament organisers are hoping that the clouds will at least have cleared by the weekend.

All our tips this week are people who have been brought up playing golf in really crap conditions. Step forward the massed ranks of Celtic golfers!

We really like Darren Clarke's chances this week. After his much publicised honesty (and a six at the last that cost him a home win), it would be instant karma if the golfing gods let hin win here. Of course he's got the game, he knows the course as he's got a house there (as have half the field), and whilst he's not a generous price, he'll be there on the last day.

You'll get much bigger odds on a US Tour player who grew up in one of the world's rainiest towns. Recently back on the European circuit, Philip Price is from Pontypridd, famous for being the birthplace of Tom Jones and goal kicking machine Neil Jenkins and easily the wettest place I have ever lived. Pricey had a tough time in the USA after doing brilliantly at tour school and he's ridiculous value at 300/1 with Betfair. He's very solid and might have his eye on a late run towards Ryder Cup points following his singles win over Amy's husband last time round.

We'll not be taking prices on some of the people who have blown winning positions over the last few weeks, especially Scott and Immelman, who are both being tipped by some of our competitors, but we might have a few bob on old favourite Monty if we can get three figure odds. We'll be looking to back all three to finish in the first ten. Friday start, don't forget. Hope it blows a gale!

Show me the money (at last)

Well it's been a while since we tipped JB at 190/1 and whilst the money won't run out for many, many weeks, it was great to collect on Nathan Green finishing in the top 10 last week. Betfair offered a very generous 20/1 in a poor field and whilst we were disappointed not to collect on the 370/1 bet we laid for him to win, a win is indeed "a win".

After seeing another huge outsider end up as last man standing whilst all around him chucked the tournament away, this week we'll be focusing on the beautiful West Course at Wentworth, rather than try to pick a winner from the worst field of the US Tour for years. Stay tuned for an update and news from the course.

The loneliness of the long price punter?

Winless again. Just like the so called favourites of the last few weeks (months!) we're struggling to find any form lines in this crazy world of $6MILLION purses for tournaments where none of the worl'd top five bother to turn up. Whilst Weitterich, Couch et al help themselves to the gazillions of dollars on offer, our list of people who "can't win" continues to grow. What's Adam Scott's excuse? Immelman? They're both off our list for a while...

This week we go to Texas. The Colonial has one weird formline, in that it's often won by what we could call ahem "older players". Kenny Perry has won here twice in the last three years, last year winning by seven shots. He must be backed, even though it might seem like a bit of a pyrrhic victory (down the stretch he was battling against Billy Mayfair and Joe Durant) as a seven shot win over course and distance is not to be sniffed at.

Fred Couples missed the cut last week but he shot 72, 70, so that's hardly a tragic two days at the office. He always plays well in Texas and we can't resist him in a field like this.

It was good to see Brian Davis shoot 65 on the last day at the Byron Nelson, but he's not here this week. Still think he'll be our next J B Holmes!

The rest of the field is a lottery so we're going to change tack and start playing with Betfair's fabulous offer of paying out on a top ten finish. (Ideal for when you want to back Adam Scott next time after 54 holes). We've taken odds of between 8 and 10 to 1 about Fred Couples (old) and Camillo Villegas (not old) and huge odds about three of our favourites, Nathan Green (winner), Rich Beem (the new John Daly) and best of all, last year's tied sixth, Scott Hend. He's 530/1 to win with betfair, so we couldn't help ourselves.

Three weeks till the US Open. Promise we'll take it all more seriously by then...Go Hendy!

Jim Furyk favourite?

Gritty, Gutsy, other words starting with "G", all being used by journo's all over the world to describe Jim Furyk's 11th tour win at the Wachovia (it's a bank!) last week. We're never surprised to see Jim Furyk win but we're definitely a little taken aback to see that he is favourite to back up at this week at the Byron Nelson. Favourite? With that swing?...

We've been away but we're back (back!) and shedding few tears about missing Chris Couch (who he) and his maiden win on tour. Well done Chris. Goodness knows how much dosh we would have wasted assuming you'd blow it down the stretch. Phew.

This week we're on familiar territory at the Byron Nelson, one of the tour's most regular venues. Unlike previous years this years field hasn't attracted the top five in the money list (hence Furyk being favourite) but despite stellar fields every year, this is a tournament with more than a smattering of surprise winners. From Ted Purdy's maiden win last year (1 from 172) to Robert Damron gifting the 2004 prize to Sergio in a play off, this tournament has also seen Shigeiki Maruyama's finest hour, so I guess we'll be ripping the form book up. Again.

If there is one thing you can say about winners of this tournament, they're probably hitting it straighter than average and they'd need to shoot 15 under or better to win. Stuart Appleby flew out of the gates last year with an opening 63, proving that low scores are out there and both Singh and Purdy, the eventual winner shot 65 on the final afternoon.

Whenever someone asks for straight, we always lean to Luke Donald. A proven winner on tour, he's an obvious pick and has had the benefit of a few weeks away from the tour. It's a Ryder Cup year and he'll be keen to cement his position in the team, presumably as a captains pick. Currently available at 28/1, good value and we'll be having a few dollars on.

As we will on JB. For 150 good reasons. Yes, we know he's gone off a little since his first win, but again, this is a relatively poor field and he's just so long, any course that rewards length and he has to come into consideration. Go J.B.Holmes. We need the money...

Journeyman's easiest chance to make a few mill?

Friends. We may not have any money left after the last few weeks, but we're looking forward to the Houston Open, surely?

There's no relief for punters as we turn up to another completely new layout, this one being a 7,400 yard plus monster. It's a pay as you play course that David Toms had a hand in designing and not, repeat NOT the same track that Vijay has won on three times in the last four years.

It'll be another punters graveyeard as a whole heap of tour pros look forward to one of those weeks with no Tiger, Els, Sergio, Phil etc. In fact, the field this week is so thin that Freddie Jacobsen and Vaughan Taylor both feature in the top ten of betting although they are playing for a staggering $4.4 million in prize money.

Still fancy a punt? Still bonkers? OK, here goes...

Once again tipsters say we need to look for people who can smack the ball a long way. So inevitably they are putting up Daly, Glover and Bubba Watson. Others are taking the rather obvious step of making Vijay favourite. The UK bookmakers are apparently taking money at 4/1. If that seems like a good idea, stop reading this and go for it. But all those choices are based on form on a different course and none of them have shown a likelihood to win recently. We're especially worried that Vijay won on a different course last year and still nervous about that putting stroke. He's the stand out player on class alone but 8 bogeys and 3 doubles during the last three rounds at the Masters isn't a great form line. We'll give him a miss this week.

It was good to see Stephen Leaney finish strong last week, with one of the best closing rounds of 68 netting him a $103,000 paycheck. On a difficult day for scoring, one shot worse would have seen him blow 26 grand, so perhaps he's starting to find some form. His driving stats show that he's by no means the longest but he's in the top drawer in terms of accuracy and we reckon you'd be expecting at least 33/1 a place, so go find some value.

Another of our wild card small field favourites Rich Beem tees it up this week. A very respectable Masters performance suggests he's on top of his form. You can never risk anything other than small stakes on the ex telephone salesman, but he does whack it a long way and unlike the majority of this field, he's got three tour wins under his belt. Once again, we're looking for three figure odds here and have everything crossed.

still going...

This looks like it might be a nice few days ahead. JB started like the proverbial with 5 early birdies in the first five and then dropped a shot on the short 6th, after three putting. Know that feeling.

Brian Davis had his usual 5 birdies and three bogeys and sits hidden in the pack at 2 under. This course really suits Brian and if he can just eliminate the bogeys, we could be on for a nice payday. There's still lots of value around and you can get on now if you're not on already.

Nathan Green is struggling to regain his form of the early season, but a 67 or 68 tomorrow should see him join us for the weekend. And that's when the fun starts. Good luck team.

Let's get excited about Hilton Head!

Well done Phil from everybody who got their free Callaways! Can we move on before we have to run pictures of Amy and the kids?

Hilton Head is a golf course that has two claims to fame. Firstly, it's on every golf computer game (well both the ones that we play anyway) and secondly it's the venue for the tournament after the Masters. Not the hugest claims to fame admittedly, but it's definitely a few notches up from the local muni.

The MCI Heritage, now known as the Verizon heritage is a graveyard for Masters form. Won last year by Peter Lonard, it's a seaside links type course, short and featuring small greens. It's as far from Augusta as it's possible to get. Understandably, therefore, it's very rare for players to carry their form through from the Masters and in our tipping this week, we'll run the risk of completely ignoring Tim Clark, Jose Maria and tournament favourite Ernie Els.

We're looking for someone who is fresh, can play well on tight courses that reward good iron play and has a track record on seaside links.

First up on our list to consider is Brian Davis. Known for his silky smooth and enviable swing, his first tournament win many, many years ago was the Jersey Open and serving his apprenticeship in Europe before (lest we forget) winning Tour school last year, he's got the all round ball striking skills. Sure he's one of our favourites, but he'll have enjoyed the recent easy schedule and with no Tiger or Phil, well hey! We think that this is Brian's type of course and we love the 250/1 that's on offer with Betfair.

Talking of tour school winners, we reckon that J B Holmes is a great bet when the big boys are having a rest. JB missed out on the Masters and again the rest can only have done him some good. It's his first year on tour, so he's got no obvious course history, but as we all know, he has won already, streeting the field at the FBR open, having finished 10th in the wind at Hawaii on his first tour start. He's scond in driving distance, which on a short course means he'll be hitting very short irons into most of the par fours. We're convinced he's a star in the making and this is a great week to be getting a three figure quote on his chances.

Our final choice in this furiously tough week is another player with form on the board who failed to get a go at Augusta. Nathan Green has also won already this year and boasts plenty of form from his Aussie tour days of windy links golf. He grew up playing the tough NSW coastal courses and now that he's dicovered the secret of putting (he leads the tour putting stats as we write) he's too good to overlook at 100/1 plus. We caddied in a three ball with him last year and can report that he's a very solid, "fairways and greens" man.

Let's be honest, it's a lottery, but with all three paying well over 100/1 it's a good chance for some fun bets. We probably favour JB, but back all three and hope they last longer than Daly.

What price will they go?

OK. Forget Daly, Monty and Choi...although we were right about DiMarco at least...the key question for the next 20 hours until the markets are "in play" again is "what price will the bookmakers push Tiger out to?"

As we write, the price on Betfair is $5.50, Centrebet are going $4.50 and the NSW TAB site is stuck...well it is Saturday...god they're useless. The minute we see a 6 against Tiger Woods name on Betfair, we're piling in. Sure he's scratchy, but as we all know, tomorrow is "moving day" and surely he'll be chasing eagles at what has become the easy part of the course on 13 and 15.

Interested to see whether the US TV networks devote any time to the stellar final pairing of Mediate and Campbell when Fred and Tiger are in contention, but whatever happens we'll be hoping to see a glimpse of the dark horse Darren Clarke. Bolters from the pack might include Steven Ames, who five days ago wasn't even playing and of course Ernie Els who's quietly going about his business.

Double up on Garcia?

OK. So we're meant to be a serious source of insider knowledge for the golf punter. So I apologise for this in advance. Especially if you don't live in Australia.

This weekend "down under" is not just Masters weekend, but also the first of the horse racing carnivals and keen eyed punters will know that Gai Waterhouse's horse Diego Garcia is vying for favouritism in the Golden Slipper.

So could it be a Sergio and Diego Garcia double? We did tell you yesterday that Sergio was apparently looking for a doctor to get some urgent X rays, so common sense says we should be giving him a very wide berth.

But paying over 100/1 we'll all kick ourselves if we miss out (and anyway common sense is over rated). So we've had a go. For $5....

(I wonder if there's a horse in this weekend's English Grand National with the name Garcia as well?.. Answers on a postcard please.)

More news from Augusta as the USA wakes up to Par 3 day...

Can Monty win the Masters?

It's Masters week and the world's greatest golfers are facing an Augusta course that once again promises to be tougher than before and longer than before. This year's news is that they've even allowed some rough to grow! The "new" Augusta is now the second longest course on Tour and with the prospect of having to hit long irons into treacherously small targets, it's really not a week for playing safe with a 3 wood up the middle.

Nicklaus says that real tournament golf only properly starts on the back nine of a Major. That's possibly most true of the Masters and every year, come Sunday afternoon, the proverbial golfing cream always rises to the top.

Whilst we normally dedicate our lives to finding the big priced outsider this is a week to enjoy a feast of TV golf and some unusually "sensible" punting.

This week's stand out!

Our betting guide starts, inevitably, with a certain Mr Tiger Woods.

Since the book on the Masters opened a year ago, Tiger has been the clear favourite, he's the defending champion and in racing parlance, four time winner over "course and distance". Last year he started at 5/1 favourite and despite shooting 76 on day one, still got up to finish first over Chris 'pumping fist" Di Marco.

Despite personal family issues, his season to date will have been timed to peak here and even at a short price Tiger simply cannot be opposed and should be backed to win. If you can get 5/1 anywhere in the world have a few shillings on for us....

Our sporting selections

Tiger being such a short price pretty much makes everybody else good value...For all of our selections, take the eachway price, especially with Betfair who pay on the first five and do look for bookies betting "without the favourite". Then, if Tiger streaks away, admire his golf and still collect as your man finishes a distant second, just like our members did when Monty netted us a beautiful 80/1 payday at St Andrews, despite finishing runner up to you know who....

I'd dearly love to see Colin Montgomerie win at Augusta. He's had a few difficult years, but last year's Ryder Cup showed that the locals have grown to love him and he's a much better player when he's smiling. He'll have spent the Winter planning for this and with his new lease of life and being a proven clutch putter on fast greens, I rate him the best outsider at 3 figure odds. He'd be a hugely popular winner on both sides of the Atlantic and the perfect start to a Ryder Cup year.

Luke Donald is a popular tip and a fine finishing round of 66 last week has set him up for a tilt at the big one. His long iron play is top drawer and whilst he's a little shorter than many off the tee, with each win under his belt he continues to mature. He's on many journo shortlists because of his 3rd place finish here last year. I just worry that the bookies have his number and would like to see at least 40/1 to put value into the each way.

K J Choi was 3rd here in the year that Mickelson won and 15th the year before. I'll not be at all surprised to see his name on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon and he's well priced at 50/1. Just not sure he can actually win, but 10/1 a place is worth having as insurance.

The punters choice for this week has to be someone who:

a) hits it a long way

b) can putt

c) knows how to win.

It's a huge leap of faith, but long John Daly fits all three criteria and in the month of his forteith birthday and no doubt with Ryder Cup points on his mind, he's sure to be trying! Well for the first few holes anyway. He's got a late start on Thursday with two lesser lights in Jason Bohn and Carl Pettersen. Let's hope his mind is on his game and we could be in for a roller coaster ride.

With even the Aussie TAB skinflints offering 250/1 there's great value and fun to be had in backing the big man...For small stakes!

Kiss of death

Sergio Garcia was asking if anybody knew a local doctor after play on Sunday, so cannot be backed with confidence. The same applies for Chris Di Marco, who I'm told is still troubled by that rib injury. Stuart Appleby, meanwhile has an appalling record at Augusta even without Hensby's press conferences to worry about and he'll be happy to make the cut. I've no idea what to say about Adam Scott, who surely must win again somewhere soon, but having blown a great start just two weeks ago, I'd be surprised to see him feature here and for the punter he represents terrible value at 25/1.

As for Rory Sabbatini, if he did win, his wife would probably want to have something printed on the jacket, so let's hope he wins the par-three comp, which as every hack journo knows means he won't be wearing the green jacket come Sunday.

We'll be watching at the crack of dawn "down under"...can't wait.

GOOD PUNTING EVERYONE

The Golf Tipster