Journeyman's easiest chance to make a few mill?

Friends. We may not have any money left after the last few weeks, but we're looking forward to the Houston Open, surely?

There's no relief for punters as we turn up to another completely new layout, this one being a 7,400 yard plus monster. It's a pay as you play course that David Toms had a hand in designing and not, repeat NOT the same track that Vijay has won on three times in the last four years.

It'll be another punters graveyeard as a whole heap of tour pros look forward to one of those weeks with no Tiger, Els, Sergio, Phil etc. In fact, the field this week is so thin that Freddie Jacobsen and Vaughan Taylor both feature in the top ten of betting although they are playing for a staggering $4.4 million in prize money.

Still fancy a punt? Still bonkers? OK, here goes...

Once again tipsters say we need to look for people who can smack the ball a long way. So inevitably they are putting up Daly, Glover and Bubba Watson. Others are taking the rather obvious step of making Vijay favourite. The UK bookmakers are apparently taking money at 4/1. If that seems like a good idea, stop reading this and go for it. But all those choices are based on form on a different course and none of them have shown a likelihood to win recently. We're especially worried that Vijay won on a different course last year and still nervous about that putting stroke. He's the stand out player on class alone but 8 bogeys and 3 doubles during the last three rounds at the Masters isn't a great form line. We'll give him a miss this week.

It was good to see Stephen Leaney finish strong last week, with one of the best closing rounds of 68 netting him a $103,000 paycheck. On a difficult day for scoring, one shot worse would have seen him blow 26 grand, so perhaps he's starting to find some form. His driving stats show that he's by no means the longest but he's in the top drawer in terms of accuracy and we reckon you'd be expecting at least 33/1 a place, so go find some value.

Another of our wild card small field favourites Rich Beem tees it up this week. A very respectable Masters performance suggests he's on top of his form. You can never risk anything other than small stakes on the ex telephone salesman, but he does whack it a long way and unlike the majority of this field, he's got three tour wins under his belt. Once again, we're looking for three figure odds here and have everything crossed.

still going...

This looks like it might be a nice few days ahead. JB started like the proverbial with 5 early birdies in the first five and then dropped a shot on the short 6th, after three putting. Know that feeling.

Brian Davis had his usual 5 birdies and three bogeys and sits hidden in the pack at 2 under. This course really suits Brian and if he can just eliminate the bogeys, we could be on for a nice payday. There's still lots of value around and you can get on now if you're not on already.

Nathan Green is struggling to regain his form of the early season, but a 67 or 68 tomorrow should see him join us for the weekend. And that's when the fun starts. Good luck team.

Let's get excited about Hilton Head!

Well done Phil from everybody who got their free Callaways! Can we move on before we have to run pictures of Amy and the kids?

Hilton Head is a golf course that has two claims to fame. Firstly, it's on every golf computer game (well both the ones that we play anyway) and secondly it's the venue for the tournament after the Masters. Not the hugest claims to fame admittedly, but it's definitely a few notches up from the local muni.

The MCI Heritage, now known as the Verizon heritage is a graveyard for Masters form. Won last year by Peter Lonard, it's a seaside links type course, short and featuring small greens. It's as far from Augusta as it's possible to get. Understandably, therefore, it's very rare for players to carry their form through from the Masters and in our tipping this week, we'll run the risk of completely ignoring Tim Clark, Jose Maria and tournament favourite Ernie Els.

We're looking for someone who is fresh, can play well on tight courses that reward good iron play and has a track record on seaside links.

First up on our list to consider is Brian Davis. Known for his silky smooth and enviable swing, his first tournament win many, many years ago was the Jersey Open and serving his apprenticeship in Europe before (lest we forget) winning Tour school last year, he's got the all round ball striking skills. Sure he's one of our favourites, but he'll have enjoyed the recent easy schedule and with no Tiger or Phil, well hey! We think that this is Brian's type of course and we love the 250/1 that's on offer with Betfair.

Talking of tour school winners, we reckon that J B Holmes is a great bet when the big boys are having a rest. JB missed out on the Masters and again the rest can only have done him some good. It's his first year on tour, so he's got no obvious course history, but as we all know, he has won already, streeting the field at the FBR open, having finished 10th in the wind at Hawaii on his first tour start. He's scond in driving distance, which on a short course means he'll be hitting very short irons into most of the par fours. We're convinced he's a star in the making and this is a great week to be getting a three figure quote on his chances.

Our final choice in this furiously tough week is another player with form on the board who failed to get a go at Augusta. Nathan Green has also won already this year and boasts plenty of form from his Aussie tour days of windy links golf. He grew up playing the tough NSW coastal courses and now that he's dicovered the secret of putting (he leads the tour putting stats as we write) he's too good to overlook at 100/1 plus. We caddied in a three ball with him last year and can report that he's a very solid, "fairways and greens" man.

Let's be honest, it's a lottery, but with all three paying well over 100/1 it's a good chance for some fun bets. We probably favour JB, but back all three and hope they last longer than Daly.

What price will they go?

OK. Forget Daly, Monty and Choi...although we were right about DiMarco at least...the key question for the next 20 hours until the markets are "in play" again is "what price will the bookmakers push Tiger out to?"

As we write, the price on Betfair is $5.50, Centrebet are going $4.50 and the NSW TAB site is stuck...well it is Saturday...god they're useless. The minute we see a 6 against Tiger Woods name on Betfair, we're piling in. Sure he's scratchy, but as we all know, tomorrow is "moving day" and surely he'll be chasing eagles at what has become the easy part of the course on 13 and 15.

Interested to see whether the US TV networks devote any time to the stellar final pairing of Mediate and Campbell when Fred and Tiger are in contention, but whatever happens we'll be hoping to see a glimpse of the dark horse Darren Clarke. Bolters from the pack might include Steven Ames, who five days ago wasn't even playing and of course Ernie Els who's quietly going about his business.

Double up on Garcia?

OK. So we're meant to be a serious source of insider knowledge for the golf punter. So I apologise for this in advance. Especially if you don't live in Australia.

This weekend "down under" is not just Masters weekend, but also the first of the horse racing carnivals and keen eyed punters will know that Gai Waterhouse's horse Diego Garcia is vying for favouritism in the Golden Slipper.

So could it be a Sergio and Diego Garcia double? We did tell you yesterday that Sergio was apparently looking for a doctor to get some urgent X rays, so common sense says we should be giving him a very wide berth.

But paying over 100/1 we'll all kick ourselves if we miss out (and anyway common sense is over rated). So we've had a go. For $5....

(I wonder if there's a horse in this weekend's English Grand National with the name Garcia as well?.. Answers on a postcard please.)

More news from Augusta as the USA wakes up to Par 3 day...

Can Monty win the Masters?

It's Masters week and the world's greatest golfers are facing an Augusta course that once again promises to be tougher than before and longer than before. This year's news is that they've even allowed some rough to grow! The "new" Augusta is now the second longest course on Tour and with the prospect of having to hit long irons into treacherously small targets, it's really not a week for playing safe with a 3 wood up the middle.

Nicklaus says that real tournament golf only properly starts on the back nine of a Major. That's possibly most true of the Masters and every year, come Sunday afternoon, the proverbial golfing cream always rises to the top.

Whilst we normally dedicate our lives to finding the big priced outsider this is a week to enjoy a feast of TV golf and some unusually "sensible" punting.

This week's stand out!

Our betting guide starts, inevitably, with a certain Mr Tiger Woods.

Since the book on the Masters opened a year ago, Tiger has been the clear favourite, he's the defending champion and in racing parlance, four time winner over "course and distance". Last year he started at 5/1 favourite and despite shooting 76 on day one, still got up to finish first over Chris 'pumping fist" Di Marco.

Despite personal family issues, his season to date will have been timed to peak here and even at a short price Tiger simply cannot be opposed and should be backed to win. If you can get 5/1 anywhere in the world have a few shillings on for us....

Our sporting selections

Tiger being such a short price pretty much makes everybody else good value...For all of our selections, take the eachway price, especially with Betfair who pay on the first five and do look for bookies betting "without the favourite". Then, if Tiger streaks away, admire his golf and still collect as your man finishes a distant second, just like our members did when Monty netted us a beautiful 80/1 payday at St Andrews, despite finishing runner up to you know who....

I'd dearly love to see Colin Montgomerie win at Augusta. He's had a few difficult years, but last year's Ryder Cup showed that the locals have grown to love him and he's a much better player when he's smiling. He'll have spent the Winter planning for this and with his new lease of life and being a proven clutch putter on fast greens, I rate him the best outsider at 3 figure odds. He'd be a hugely popular winner on both sides of the Atlantic and the perfect start to a Ryder Cup year.

Luke Donald is a popular tip and a fine finishing round of 66 last week has set him up for a tilt at the big one. His long iron play is top drawer and whilst he's a little shorter than many off the tee, with each win under his belt he continues to mature. He's on many journo shortlists because of his 3rd place finish here last year. I just worry that the bookies have his number and would like to see at least 40/1 to put value into the each way.

K J Choi was 3rd here in the year that Mickelson won and 15th the year before. I'll not be at all surprised to see his name on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon and he's well priced at 50/1. Just not sure he can actually win, but 10/1 a place is worth having as insurance.

The punters choice for this week has to be someone who:

a) hits it a long way

b) can putt

c) knows how to win.

It's a huge leap of faith, but long John Daly fits all three criteria and in the month of his forteith birthday and no doubt with Ryder Cup points on his mind, he's sure to be trying! Well for the first few holes anyway. He's got a late start on Thursday with two lesser lights in Jason Bohn and Carl Pettersen. Let's hope his mind is on his game and we could be in for a roller coaster ride.

With even the Aussie TAB skinflints offering 250/1 there's great value and fun to be had in backing the big man...For small stakes!

Kiss of death

Sergio Garcia was asking if anybody knew a local doctor after play on Sunday, so cannot be backed with confidence. The same applies for Chris Di Marco, who I'm told is still troubled by that rib injury. Stuart Appleby, meanwhile has an appalling record at Augusta even without Hensby's press conferences to worry about and he'll be happy to make the cut. I've no idea what to say about Adam Scott, who surely must win again somewhere soon, but having blown a great start just two weeks ago, I'd be surprised to see him feature here and for the punter he represents terrible value at 25/1.

As for Rory Sabbatini, if he did win, his wife would probably want to have something printed on the jacket, so let's hope he wins the par-three comp, which as every hack journo knows means he won't be wearing the green jacket come Sunday.

We'll be watching at the crack of dawn "down under"...can't wait.

GOOD PUNTING EVERYONE

The Golf Tipster