Written in the stars?

He's 7 shots off the lead and has just 11 holes to play. In the US Open. So why is Tiger great value at 17/1?

Don't think Barnes can keep it straight enough down the stretch. Glover's got mind issues when he gets in contention. Can't think where to start with Duval. The fatBoy and Weir are poor value although both could sneak it as could Mahan.

Have taken the 50/1 about Goosen who knows how to win and the 320/1 on Soren Hansen. (Because it's 320/1 mainly).

But I can't say no to a small saver at 17/1 about the world's greatest sportsman on his home turf. The man who won on one leg last year. As Joe Strummer would say, "ridiculous ain't it".

TOPPING runs in a barrier trial at Toowoomba tomorrow. (It's in Australia). Will he be the next Xaar Xaar or the next Go Golf World? Go you hopefully good thing...

Open and shut?

We're back to the old dilemma. Do we back Tiger at 3/1 now or wait till he shoots 74 on day one and take the more generous 5/1? Or do we wait till 36 holes are under our belt?

The answer of course is a bit of both. We'll wait till tomorrow on Tiger and pick the best outsider on Saturday morning. For now we'll concentrate on fidning the winner of the "betting without Tiger" market. Our criteria are obvious. Must be able to win under pressure. Must know how to hit it straight and long. Be nice if he's a good price too.

It's the last criteria that knocks out Phil, Sergio, Furyk and Casey. But I reckon three of them can't win anyway. Like Adam Scott (who he?).

My three tentative choices are ludicrously sentimental. My three poms against the rest are Luke Donald, Lee Westwood and Graeme McDowell. They've all shown enough to suggest they'll be up for this and at 75/1 plus, great value. I've also had a micron on James Nitties. 790/1 was just too hard to resist.

We'll be back at the weekend, hopefuly just before the Lions put De Wet Barry's countrymen in their place. Not a moment too soon.

Back to reality

Two birdies down the stretch. Tiger wins. And I'm 50, apparently. Hilarious.

As is the website I got this picture from. It's called www.cakethat.com. Marvellous. Happy, happy happy...

Out of the woods?

How bizarre. Calculating the odds on a big event and not even thinking about Tiger. Famous last words? We'll see...

Yesterday was obviously tougher than the first day where Loooook Donald shot 8 under. I've never heard of Matt Bettencourt but noticed that in shooting the day's lowest round he had three bogeys to go with the 8 birdies. Which is nice. At 100/1 we had to take a few dollars worth...

As for the rest of the field, DiMarco is good value three off the lead at 100/1. He's struggled since the operation but he's gradually coming back to form and obviously knows how to win. I'm also interested in the 400/1 about Hunter MayHan. He can win. As can Johnson Wagner at 200/1, That's him in the picture.

But it's entirely possible I'll be starting again with more small stakes tomorrow...

Melbourne Cup Winner 2009

Last Saturday, I saw the Australian debut of this year's Melbourne Cup winner.

Speed Gifted's first experience of an Australian race meeting was fittingly at Flemington. This son of Montjeu (sounds familar?) formerly trained by Luca Cumani and now looked after by a bloke who knows a thing or two about the cup, Lee Freedman, put in the most dazzling sprint since Pebbles won the Breeders Cup.

Starting at the luxurious odds of 20/1 in a modest Melbourne event despite being placed in a UK Gp3 race last year, he sat wide 6 furlongs out until he suddenly went whooska leaving everything paddling in his wake.

I don't think we'll get the 80/1 we got about Bauer last year, but holy moly. What a run!

Tiger? He can't win...

What happpened there? Apart from another donation going to my bookie's new Bentley fund.

To the relief of all and sundry, Eldrich's taking the week off this week along with, well virtually everyone you've ever heard of from the PGA Tour. The Valero Texas Open is like a golfing equivalent of Life on Mars with both Corey Pavin and David Duval (David Duval?) both on the leaderboard chasing Justin Leonard and Paul Goydos. Leonard is astonishingly bad value at less than 4/1 with 54 to go on a course where birdies are swarming around. Not for us thanks.

It's a lottery wit 54 to go but have to have a few dollars on Jarrod Lyle at the ridiculous odds of 1000/1. An old favourite of ours, Jarrod was 4 under after ten holes, three off the lead when I left home this morning. All day I've been planning to have a few quid on at, say 40/1 as I thought he'd be the smokey, a few shots off the lead. Taking a quadruple bogey at his 11th hole then two more coming home means he's 9 shots back. 1000/1! Ridiculous.

As is Nathan Green at 830/1. Three birdies and three bogeys make level today, but this is his sort of track. And at those odds...

You can get huge odds about Nick O'Hern as well. Not for me ta.

Big punting weekend again. Looking out for Extra Zero at Flemington plus Sarerra in Singapore. I'm also told that Hey Elvis is laid out for the Straddy. Go careful out there...