He can't win...

It's been a running joke on TGT (that's short for The Golf Tipster by the way) that Adam Scott can't win. Three shots clear, 18 to go, all you have to do is get that pesky ball into a hole that gets tinier as the prize gets nearer. And then the putter starts to wobble. You know the drill.

Well this week, he can't win. He's injured. Although today he said that "had it been the US Open he might have played".

So, let's take this slowly. An AUSTRALIAN player can't play in the AUSTRALIAN Open. But he would have played if it had been the $3m Wannamaker Trophy up for grabs, aka the US Open.

Fair to say the Australian golf forums are wishing him well on his return to wherever. See ya!

Anyhoo. On to business. This weeks Australian Open at Royal Sydney is packed with Australian stars but a bit light on worldwide drawcards. There's Darren Clarke of course and John Daly, but we're probably looking at a local picking up the trophy on Sunday.

I can't pick between the Aussies. Ogilvy looked solid last week but is no value at 7/1, Allenby continues to be Allenby and then there's a toss up between Green, Pampling, Senden et all, 15/1 on offer all round. That's a 36 hole bet for mine.

To start the Aussie season on TGT, we've got a HUGE betting opportunity in the shape of James Nitties. 5th last year in this event is a plus, but here's a guy who is coming home after shooting 23 under to be runner up in PGA Tour school. Now he might be a bit tired, but on the other hand, he might just be surfing a wave of something after getting his card. I'd make him a 40/1 shot at best but even the odious TAB have him at a mouthwatering 66/1, Betfair last night were going 140/1, with 10/1 to finish in the top ten. Ridiculous value and we're in with both boots.

Hope he's not knackered. It's good to be back...

see them fall

The last round of the Turning Stone will see someone achieve their lifetime's ambition whilst many more absurdly named USPGA pro's will see their hopes disappear before them as a miserable last nine unfolds.

We're sitting pretty with a few bucks on the man from East Herts that they used to call Goldfinger, Brian Davis, although since winning tour school, he's not actually tasted PGA victory yet so the chickens are still very much uncounted. But neither have Overton, Day, Thompson or Dustin Warren (who they?). Eagle eyed punters won't have missed Tag Ridings missing from 2 feet on 18 as the nerves kicked in a tad early at the end of the third round.

One man who has won this year is our friend Ryiuchi Imada, who gave us a 100/1 pay day two months ago. Three birdies yesterday puts him just four behind a shaky leaderboard. We're looking at a four figure payout having loaded up on the 330/1 on offer at the start. How do you say "go on my son" in Japanese?

I'm sorry...have we met?

How weak is the field for the Turning Stone Classic? Allenby's the favourite based on his brief glimmer of form last week and tour leviathan Dudley Hart (who he?) is third favourite. The tournament has "wait until the cut" written all over it and it's really hard to find any value this far out.

As usual, we've scanned the field for past winners and Ted Purdy kind of stands out at 500/1 although he hasn't won since 2005. There's three figure prices on Rich Beem and Brian Davis but nothing that sets the pulses racing.

We'll pick the winner of the Epsom to get some cash in the bank and consider options after the halfway cut.

Oh Sergio...

And there was me after the Majors saying "No...he's not...he just got beat by a better player". I'm not so sure now. With him, the FC and the new Chris diMarco at the top of the leaderboard, the 32/1 on offer last night against Cammi seemed poor value. Chokers the lot of them. Looks stupendous value now...

Must work on that "seemed" word. Oh and make a mental note. Never back Allenby again ever, whatever the price.

Final word to the 19 handicapper on Bob's site who posted that Perry could never win. Thanks for that. Much appreciated. Ta.

Tantamount to stealing?

I don't get this. After breezing through the Ryder Cup singles barely drawing breath and with three PGA tour wins under his belt this year, Kenny Perry is 50/1 to win this weekend. That's the precise same price as Ben "swing change and hopelessly out of form Curtis". Is his shoulder injury...the one he sustained when putting Stenson away 3 and 2...really that bad?

Beware the injured golfer. I'm betting up to my limit (using some of the money we won on Vijay) and suggest you do too.

Still not a fan though...

Cheer up missus

So if Retief Goosen asked you who he'd drawn in the world matchplay and the answer was the now famous Mr Weekly, would you be in danger of saying (ahem) "boo to a goose"?

And I wonder if my friends at Zoo Weekly have realised that Boo's wife's name is Sue? Sue Weekly...geddit!

The village idiot won and Perry holed his putts. That was the difference. Oh and putting Sergio, (whose Ryder Cup singles record is played 4 won 0) out first. I can speak from the heart of my bottom Nick when I say that was a bad, bad call.

Back back (back!) with tips at the weekend. Go visit "In Golf we Trust". They're good, good people...

Everyone's a winner

The last day of the Ryder Cup is probably a day for just watching and not trying to pick winners. Probably.

After the last few days, I can't help but feel that Ben Curtis and JB will lose. Poulter will win, as will Hansen, McDowell, Furyk (boo) Leonard and Sergio. The rest are even harder to call.

If it's all on the last, you'd fancy Padraig over Campbell, but the Irishman's form has been patchy by his standards.

Can't fancy the Fat Controller, his driving is just too erratic and he's up against a toughy in Rose.

Likewise not sure about Miguel Angel or Casey. Hoping that Wilson beats the local village idiot and that Stenson beats Perry. Reckon the whole thing hangs on those two. Win and we win. Lose and we'll all be booing. But not in a nice way.

It's a rich man's world

Money, money, money. I just don't get Betfair sometimes. Don't get me wrong, I love it, but on a course where people are shooting 63 and 64, how can Aaron "Badds" Baddeley be 4 off the lead and 40/1 when Timmy Herron is 3 shots further back with five extra holes to play (he had to finish at the 13th when darkness set in) and yet he's 610/1! Who was the last one to win on tour?

And if you take my Boycott esque theory of taking two shots off the leader (It's Furyk, he's past it) then Sergio is just four behind and he's 200/1. Ridiculous when the fat controller is one shot better and 25/1! And for the trifecta, good old Hunter Mahan. This could be his week. Bloody hope so, he's 400/1! Now.

As they say in Whittlesey...fill your boots!

If I stay it will be double...

Or of course we could have just parlayed some of our winnings on VJ back on the Fijian to do the double. We didn't. And won't be doing at the BMW. Might have a few bob on Poulter if he turns up though. Talk about a man with a point to prove.

Updates to follow...

The Gambler

On a day when shooting par sees your picks tumble down the leaderboard faster than a very fast tumbling thing, it's time to regroup. (Yeah...see you Charlie, all the best, it's been good) We missed Villegas yesterday at, yes, 100/1. Ouch. And Weir, Singh, Sergio and even the Big Easy are still in contention so it looks like the bookies will be in clover come end of play tomorrow.

Except. And this is really one for the gamblers. Say Weir and Villegas shoot a couple over tomorrow. Suddenly, the pack are closer and what if one of the guys on 10 or even 9 under overnight go out and shoot a 61 or 62. Sure it's unlikely, but in echoes of previous advice, would you rather have twenty bucks on one of the leaders at 6/1 or worse or a couple of smaller bets on possible winners at ludicrous prices?

Hopefully it's the latter, in which case, let me suggest we start with a guy who's already won and had two seconds on tour this year and who ranks 5th in posting the best final rounds this season. Sitting "just off" the lead at 11 under, ladies and gentlemen, from Japan, Mr Ryuchi Imada. He's a staggering 280/1 on Betfair. I just took the 300's. Briny Baird (crazy name, crazy guy) wouldn't normally tip the needle for me, but he's close to the leaders on 12 under and 120/1. Finally, you can now get 1000/1 on Charlie Wi. I know, just can't resist it and hey! after VJ's win it's their money we're playing with.

So team, small stakes are the go for a bit of fun. Which is more than Monty, Darren Clarke and Paul McGinley will be having this weekend after Faldo picked the local boy. Brave or myopically dumb? We'll find out for sure in a week or two....

What's Going On?

4 birdies in 4 holes. Hello?

The Birdie Song

Charlie Wi has birdied the first three holes to go to eight under. Yay. Early days I know but have we got another VJ happening?

The right Charlie?

It's always good when someone shoots a low score on day one. Whilst they very rarely win, like Mahan last week, for the punter it opens the door for someone at a huge price to shoot the lights out on day two or three en route to the top of the leaderboard. Like Vijay did last week!

As we've said, this is a strong field and after the first round, there's little value at the top. Even on Betfair, it's a very skinny market. Making Singh and Weir 6 to 1 is fine but Antony Kim, who has of course never won on tour, at 16/1?

Having said all that, I'm staggered to find a player on offer at 130/1 who's been in rich form over the last few weeks. tied 4th at 15 under in the John Deere and 9th in the USPGA . He's a champion scrambler who would be a 33/1 shot on form.

His name is Charlie Wi.

Follow you, follow me?

After the euphoria of last week, back to earth with a bump for the Deutsche Bank. Most eyes including mine will be on Gleneagles this week as the Europeans fight for that last automatic spot. The starting field here is a muddled one. Has Vijay fixed his putting problem? Can Sergio put four rounds of brilliance together? Is Mickelson heading the same way as Monty? Will Padraig just put his foot down on the last day and leave them all trailing? Who knows...

There's no value on the first day with all the players mentioned above trading at under 20/1 as I write. Looking down the field, you mght like the 100/1 about Poulter, who's on a mission to get Fed Ex points cos I guess they're worth a bit more than being in the Ryder Cup. Peter Lonard and Matt Goggin are silly odds at over 200/1 and Rich Beem will win again one day.

But. like last week, I'm going to wait for 36 holes before I pick my 100/1 winner. Stay tuned.

These are the things that dreams are made of!

How good a feeling when it all comes together.

On Saturday morning, I was musing about the three figure odds on offer for both Singh and Curtis on a course were we'd seen Mahan shoot 8 under on the first day (bizarrely that turned out to be the winning score!).

Two holes of a play off later, having seen both Sergio and Singh holing improbable twenty footers and then the Spaniard getting an even more improbable free drop, Singh's home and hosed and I'm 240 quid better off.

Happy days!

The things that dreams are made of

Yesterday I tipped Vijay Singh at 100/1. He's in the final group today, one shot behind his partner Kevin Somebody.

Steve Stricker, who was 7/2 yesterday shot 6 over to slip down to four behind. Anyone can win, it's that kind of course. But boy I'll enjoy the measly 5 dollars riding on the Singhmeister.

Go Vijay!

Home on the range?

Driving ranges are amongst the dullest and most dreary of places, even in Australia. Whether it's the countless young Japanese fanatically tweaking their swings or the bloke with a huge watch and gold bracelet gripping it like a hockey stick, the range is a mental mile or two away from Wentworth or Gleneagles.

But you can learn stuff. Even if you get bored really quickly...the skill is remembering it...

1. Richard Flood was right. Holding the club firmly in the left hand is important. But much more important is fixing your gaze on the ball. It's what John Serhan called waiting for the club. It's the difference between sweet and a pull or a flub.

2. That Harvey Peninck thing about taking dead aim. Makes good sense as well.

3. And the post about Conscious Golf that's hanging around in the ether somewhere. "Just breathe" is basically what it said.

4. Finally the short game. Being afraid of shots that you can hit easy on the range is just dumb. See all three tips above, repeat.

Better, not different...

Hunters and gatherers...

Phew. I've been tipping Mahan every week for months now and in the week when I'm busy catching up with Weller after 20 years, Hunter finally shoots the lights out, without a dollar of my money to weigh him down. Thank crikey he shot two over today. With low scores a definite chance Kenny Perry is still in the running, as is Sergio, Casey and Cabrera. But with prices of 15/1 the field, including Kim, none of them represent value.

As usual, with two rounds to go, we're going for the three figures. Geoff Boycott used to say that you should add two wickets to any team's score to get a real view of the state of the game and my model is to take three shots off the top two. That leaves the guys on 2 under just 5 off the lead. Nothing on a course where Mahan shot 62. Or where Adam Scott yesterday shot 82. Ouch!

You can get over 100/1 right now on Singh or young Romero, 95/1 on Ben Curtis. Or you could take 5/2 about Stricker. Honestly, what would be the point?

It's all about the short game.

He doesn't seem to understand the concept of the tournament really starting on the back nine on Sunday afternoon. And boy can he putt. What now for Porridge?

Phew! missed it...

Maybe it's the euphoria of the Olympics, maybe I'm just clumsy wth the time difference, but I failed to get the blog written before the start of the PGA. I confess I was going to tip Hunter Mahan. He looked good value at 50/1.

He's a much better price now, 1000/1 on betfair after a horrendous 11 over par start. Ouch.

So we're scouting around for picks after a confusing first round. Harrington got off to a flier before the putter let him down so I thought he might be worth a go but at 12/1? Probably still a great bet, but we won't get rich. We'll be waiting until the second round is over for the real action, so stay tuned. One thing I do know though. After a 77 in the opening round, it's not going to be a dream first major for the boy from the bush. Again.

The Open that never was

In the week before the USPGA, the leaderboard for the WGC tournament at Firestone looks fit for the final round of a major.

Unlike Birkdale, where the top picks were blown away, literally, by the high winds of an English summer, the Bridgestone classic has seen the cream of world golf rising to the top as we move into a tense final round. Sharing the lead at eight under are Mickleson, Westwood and Singh, with Stuart Appleby hovering one shot behind.

Darren Clarke sits further back on five under, having shot a tidy 65, featuring seven birdies to shoot him up from 35th to tied for 6th. The fact that someone can make seven birdies, even on a course that ranked the toughest overall on tour last year, is proof that there's still betting value to be had as we go to the last 18.

Romantics would want Darren Clarke, currently 100/1 with Betfair to win but it's been a while since the Ulsterman was in contention. With so many winners in the field, we'll give him a miss. Mickleson represents terrible value on Betfair at almost evens and on recent form, he's a miss too. You can get 7/2 each of the two other leaders and 8/1 about Appleby, but all the leaders have been wobbly under the hammer this year and I reckon that the value is worth chasing.

Miguel Angel Jimenez was many people's tip for the Open after a run of good form. Four shots off the lead. he's available at an astonishing 85/1 to take home the trophy. Five birdies and five bogeys made for a boring level par score yesterday after shooting 66 in the second round. For the punter who doesn't fancy taking a short price in an open contest, the cigar smoking Spaniard is great value and worth a few dollars to win.

Real punters will also be tempted by a speculative few bucks on Hunter Mahan and Ian Poulter, five behind the leaders but both of whom are currently available through Betfair at over 250/1. Beats the even money about Mickleson for me any day!

Harrington to fire up again in Ohio?

After the howling winds and biting cold of the so called English summer, the world's greatest golfers travel to Akron Ohio this week for another WGC event at Firestone. Familiar to most of us as a course played on computer games (it's the one with the big golf ball on a giant flagpole), Firestone is one of the longer tracks on the US Tour, with six par fours over 450 yards yet only a rated a par of 70. With one of the two par fives known as the Monster, it was ranked as the most difficult course on the US Tour last year and sure to test the golf game of even this elite field.

Normally, this event wouldn't be a great betting proposition with a certain Mr Woods usually marked up at a very short price. He's won here six times in eight starts after all. But famously, he's not here this week, so the door's wide open for everyone else to help themself to a share of the dollars and importantly the WGC points on offer.

Three tips against the field this week include a man at the top of his and the world's game, a very boring form choice plus a nicely priced outsider with a hint of form.

I can't not tip Padraig Harrington after the way he won at Birkdale. The three wood into 17 was enough on its own but I was struck by the beaming smile and obvious enjoyment on his face coming down the stretch. He played flawless golf racking up five threes in the last eight holes in the Open and there's no reason why he can't keep it going. With no Tiger (or even Greg Norman, who's having a tilt at the US Seniors) to worry about, he could easily run away with this and he's an absolute steal in my book at the 20/1 on offer.

The obvious form choice is Stewart Cink, winner of this event in 2004 and enjoying his best season ever with a win in the Travellers Championship plus two seconds and a couple of thirds already this year. He's on his way to the highest season winnings of his career and sure to be a thorn in the side of the European team come the Ryder Cup. Like Furyk, it's hard to warm to Cink but as a form pick you can't leave him out. Unlike Mickleson who seemed lost and disinterested at Loch Lomond and worse at Birkdale.

Searching through the field for a good each way chance, I'm keen to have a few bucks on Ryan Palmer. He's had a top ten finish at this event before and he's been there or thereabouts this year and currently ranked at 30th in driving distance. He's good value each way at three figure odds and a good bet to make the cut.

Recommended staking guide:
Harrington: 5 points win, 2 points place
Cink: 3 points win
Palmer: 1 point win and place