Nessa's our special guest tipster

Oh. I won't lie to you. Kenny Perry's going to win the money this weekend. Field's hopeless, see. And all the so called experts are tipping people who can't win. What's more of a worry, I'll be honest with you is that they are all tipping the same people who can't win (and here goes the kiss of death) like Senden, Merrick, Hamilton and Howell Mark 3.

Take my advice, in any race where you can get 18/1 the favourite, it's worth a look. Load up on Kenny Perry to get back to winning ways. Alun's back next week...look you, isn't it.

Tidy.

Would have, could have etc...

She should have won, would have if a) the race had been another 100 meters or b) if the jockey wasn't a halfwit. Damn.

The Verizon classic isn't really that much of a classic. If Brian Gay does hold on to win (he probably won't) then it'll be a reflection of the field as much as anything. Given that someone has shot 65 every day (and over a dozen did yesterday) you'd think that the tournament will be won with a score around 13 under. Gay's been flawless to here with just one bad hole in the first 54 but with just one tour win in the last five years, I'm not interested in taking the odds on him adding another trophy to the proverbial.

Davis Love is still there and knowing the course backwards could still represent the best value at 20/1. Luke Donald is probably itching a win and on pure form, one of the stars of Augusta looks nicely poised a few behind the leader. Then again, it is Todd Hamilton...

The forgotten horse?

Form over the distance. Trainer in form. Light weight. Won a big race a fortnight ago in the heavy (and boy did it rain in Sydney this week).

I reckon NEROLI is nailed on for the Doncaster at each way prices. Make up an exotic with Hot Danish if you like, but don't miss this one.

It must be (Davis) Love, Love Love.

Harbour Town. Famous for being one of the original computer game courses with an 18th hole that wrecked many a card and the place that Davis "loves". (That's enough Davis Love puns I think)

He's a prolific winner here and others who have course form are Justin Leonard and Stewart Cink. You can be forgiven if you're thinking we've ended up in some kind of Dr Who meets the PGA time travel thing, especially when the PGA Tour experts unanimously pick another old man, Jim Furyk as this weeks winner!

It's hard to know what to make of the Masters but I'm saying Furyk did it tough and I reckon it'll be tougher for him to give a monkeys about the Verizon classic. Same applies to Cink and Els for mine. Amongst the most extraordinary tips on the web this week are some well respected experts tipping Rory McIlroy and Robert Allenby. They'll be tipping old Scotty next...

I'm taking two against the field at silly odds until the cut when I'll wade in properly. It's still hilarious that anyone's called Boo Weekly and like many at Emap I wonder whether he has a wife called Sue. (Sue weekly...geddit?).

Whatever, he's won here twice and defends the title this week. A more likely prospect who had a nice trip to Augusta is Aaron Baddeley. Devilishly good on the greens and last years unlucky runner up, he may well rise up to the top come Sunday. As it were.

Good luck to anyone who has any money left after Augusta...

Back to single figures?

I've been toiling with a double digit handicap for too long. From the age of 15 when Rupert Speechley cut me six shots from 14 to 8 for "general play", I was a single figure man well into my thirties with a lifetime handicap low of 6.1. Mind you, that was when I was working on a golf magazine and playing twice a week plus practice, but that's not important.

After a lifetime already of playing the game, I'm going to collect and publish all the very best tips and advice I can muster, both from the interweb and the deep recesses of my brain to crack the secret of single figures. Inspired by the waistlines on offer down the stretch at Augusta (kenny Perry's 49 didn't you know) it's time for a serious crack at it.

We're on the way back, back, (back!) to what the locals call "A Grade". Join me on my journey!

Best laid plans...

How many selections do you need before you come to Angel Cabrera? Some lucky soul got 330/1 on betfair during the week and you could have grabbed 12/1 last night. I didn't and as far as I can find from a trawl through the blogosphere, neither did anybody else...

Good luck to him and anyone who had a few bob on him or Katayama for the place. Guess Perry will take the easy option and stay home for the Open again after meeting his demons today. Don't think the R&A will lose too much sleep.

We'll be back, back (back!) next week and following a few conversations on Twitter (I can't bring myself to call them tweets), will be adding a bit more golf commentary to the blog based on a magazine idea I had many years ago called Fore! Look out for that and a new website called The Golf Writers both coming up soon.

They'd be in production by now if Kenny had won...

It's Kenny!

With four hours to go until showdown, Betfair have Cabrera as favourite, with Tiger out to 22/1. The words "surely he can't win" come to mind. For both of them...

In what might now be the dullest finish to a major ever, we're faced with the prospect of a shoot out between Perry, Furyk, Todd Hamilton and blimmin Rory Sabbatini. I'll have a tenner with you now that if he wins, he'll dedicate it to Gary Player. God give us all strength. There's no chance that Shingo or Tim Clark can get up sadly, especially for me as I've got a voucher on the par three winner for odds of 350/1.

I've had a little saver tonight on Sabbatini at 50 and Hamilton at 75 and still nothing on Chad but with my bets from three weeks ago at 100/1 ready to collect, it's a big cheerio and come on my sons to Kenny Perry and Jim Furyk, lets see one of you bring the cup home in style.

6/1 The field?. Got to love Betfair...

This must be one of the best half way leaderboards for years. There's a good chance that Kenny stay at home Perry can hold his lead and we've got Harrington, Mickelson, Singh (hurrah!), Furyk, even Sergio, god bless him, still in the hunt. Plus Tiger.

That wedge at 18 was really horrid. Worryingly like me, in fact. Apart from the 320 yard uphill drive obviously. Very untiger like. Can he fix it on the range? 6/1 says he can...I'm going to pass.

We've got small price tickets running on all of the above except Paddy and Serge (yay!) with big price tickets on Badds and Romero. Have topped up with a flyer on Betfair with Poulter (at 500/1!) and Weir at 300/1.

Hoping the tournament won't be won by someone with a four letter christian name. Sorry Chad, Todd and Rory!

Who'll be runner up?

Good of the match committee at Augusta to choose a host of soft pin positions to get us all interested in the Masters again. I'm sure the TV people had a quiet word as nobody wants to watch pros struggling and making bogey.

That's all fixed and under the heading of sublime to ridiculous, Larry Mize shot 5 under! You can get 330/1 on Betfair if you reckon he can do it again. I'll give you 3,300.

They'll probably leave it easy tomorrow but then toughen up for the weekend, when we'll see Tiger stroll through the field and win again. He always starts slowly, but this year he was actually a little unlucky and could be two or three better. And given that Chad and Hunter displayed the classic US absence of backbone on the home stretch, we need someone to hold firm and give the guy a game.

Happy with our antepost vouchers on Furyk, Weir, Clark and Baddeley and have a sneaky suspicion that Tim Clark might be thereabouts come Sunday. But unless you fancy the 2/1 and haven't had a bet yet, keep your money safe for another 24 hours...

Sure fire bets for Augusta?

I like this picture. It features Trevor Immelman and Zach Johnson. Proof, if we needed it that the Masters has changed. Years ago, you'd only consider the top five in the world, maybe ten at best as betting propositions and lay them at all prices whilst they floundered (Faldo shot 75 on Friday in the year he smashed Norman) only to see the cream rise to the top come Sunday.

Stuff of legend? Sure, but this is a very different Augusta. Longer, tougher and by all accounts blimmin cold. My people tell me that it's forecast to get warmer by the weekend but in the meantime, few players have been practicing for fear of contracting frostbite or something.

So who's going to win? Tiger Woods probably and at $3.65 on Betfair now, it's one of the bets of the year, especially after that ridiculous putt a fortnight ago. Sorry but it is.

A winner's a winner, but only fools get rich at those prices, so for the rest of us, I strongly recommend Betfair's excellent "betting without Tiger" market. Here's how it works. The prices assume Tiger's not playing. So, at time of writing, you can get 7/1 about Phil and double figures about everybody else. To come second, if you get my drift. If Tiger falls at the last and your choice wins outright of course, you get a lower price than if you'd had a normal bet, but you could also be accused of being picky...

The bets I recommend now (and there'll be much better value after the cut) are based on three things: form at Augusta (no chance to practice not being a good thing for first timers), value and putting. There's simply no point backing someone who gets the wobbles on Sunday. Sorry Fred.

My three against the Tiger-less field based on the above are therefore:
Trevor Immelman (80/1). First to practice on Sunday and quite clearly basing his whole year around this (wouldn't you?). Let's hope he's here for more than choosing the meals?

Luke Donald (80/1). 4 times the price of Casey? Value I reckon, despite a poor year with a few injuries. He'll be fit and firing and boy can he putt.

Pat Perez (110/1): The new Zach Johnson? He's won this year and has course form, albeit from a while ago.

I'd also consider the following good value: Ian Poulter (80/1). Gutsy and likely to raise his game. Aaron Baddeley (140/1) Great putter. Has God on his side. Tim Clark?

But you can't back them all. Not that this has stopped me in the past. We'll be back, back (back!) with more tips after 36 holes. And yes, we do hold a 100/1 outright ticket on Kenny Perry. Ridiculous. As is the blogger who writing about Gary Player said "you never know". Yes, we do. Like a certain Queenslander, he can't win. See you...I'll be one with bleary eyes...

The greatest weekend of the year?

And that's betting without the Ospreys at Thomond Park. Tonight, we'll be posting the latest news from Augusta where the weather is currently unsettled but set fair for another huge weekend. We'll be taking a very special look at the "without Tiger" markets where the value was last year. It may be worth snapping up the 50/1 about Vijay Singh now though.

We'll pass on the tempting odds on Scott, Couples, Allenby and anyone else who can't putt.

See you tonight! Watch out for the updates on Twitter...

the week before the show

It's a measure of how big next week is, that apparently Redstone Golf Club, home of this weeks Houston Open is famous for being "like Augusta". That's nice.

Sadly, even though there's a million bucks on offer, I can't help but feel that many of the field will use these 72 holes as putting practice. Not including Tiger of course who's not here. But then he hardly needs putting practice, does he.

The experts are tipping Mickelson, Ogilvy, Sergio...and Stricker. At least two pundits have picked Alviro Quiros as he smashes it long distances. Course form throws up Chad Campbell, who has been talking about looking forward to Houston and knows the course like the back of his hand plus Vijay Singh who has won this twice since it came here. Then there's Johnson Wagner, last year's winner who was overheard telling friends that his game is "coming back". He would say that.

Small stakes best for us this week in a congested field, with a real bet to come after 36. A few bob to win on Vijay, a few more on Wagner and my usual saver on the Wimeister. Come on Charlie! Welcome to all my twitter friends. growing every day...