Sure fire bets for Augusta?

I like this picture. It features Trevor Immelman and Zach Johnson. Proof, if we needed it that the Masters has changed. Years ago, you'd only consider the top five in the world, maybe ten at best as betting propositions and lay them at all prices whilst they floundered (Faldo shot 75 on Friday in the year he smashed Norman) only to see the cream rise to the top come Sunday.

Stuff of legend? Sure, but this is a very different Augusta. Longer, tougher and by all accounts blimmin cold. My people tell me that it's forecast to get warmer by the weekend but in the meantime, few players have been practicing for fear of contracting frostbite or something.

So who's going to win? Tiger Woods probably and at $3.65 on Betfair now, it's one of the bets of the year, especially after that ridiculous putt a fortnight ago. Sorry but it is.

A winner's a winner, but only fools get rich at those prices, so for the rest of us, I strongly recommend Betfair's excellent "betting without Tiger" market. Here's how it works. The prices assume Tiger's not playing. So, at time of writing, you can get 7/1 about Phil and double figures about everybody else. To come second, if you get my drift. If Tiger falls at the last and your choice wins outright of course, you get a lower price than if you'd had a normal bet, but you could also be accused of being picky...

The bets I recommend now (and there'll be much better value after the cut) are based on three things: form at Augusta (no chance to practice not being a good thing for first timers), value and putting. There's simply no point backing someone who gets the wobbles on Sunday. Sorry Fred.

My three against the Tiger-less field based on the above are therefore:
Trevor Immelman (80/1). First to practice on Sunday and quite clearly basing his whole year around this (wouldn't you?). Let's hope he's here for more than choosing the meals?

Luke Donald (80/1). 4 times the price of Casey? Value I reckon, despite a poor year with a few injuries. He'll be fit and firing and boy can he putt.

Pat Perez (110/1): The new Zach Johnson? He's won this year and has course form, albeit from a while ago.

I'd also consider the following good value: Ian Poulter (80/1). Gutsy and likely to raise his game. Aaron Baddeley (140/1) Great putter. Has God on his side. Tim Clark?

But you can't back them all. Not that this has stopped me in the past. We'll be back, back (back!) with more tips after 36 holes. And yes, we do hold a 100/1 outright ticket on Kenny Perry. Ridiculous. As is the blogger who writing about Gary Player said "you never know". Yes, we do. Like a certain Queenslander, he can't win. See you...I'll be one with bleary eyes...