Told you!

Three months ago, I tipped that SPEED GIFTED would win this year's Mlebourne Cup and that you should take the 40/1 on offer. As I write, he's 8/1 second favourite and 4/1 for Caulfield. I reckon he'll win them both. Seriously. If you can find a bookie that will lay the 32/1, fill the proverbials. He's a good, good thing. Well done Lee...

Actually, the big spring races are looking pretty easy tonight. DENMAN and IRISH LIGHTS will win the two Guineas races at Caulfield. TRUSTING will win the Cox Plate and if you want a long shot, I reckon that THE COMEDIAN might be a Derby horse against a rough old lot at 71/1.

Trust me.

Return on Investment

It's gambling I know but given the way that the so called market makers have trashed all of our savings in the last few years, serious punters should consider hauling a truck load of money out to randwick on Saturday. DENMAN is $1.60 in a five horse race. He should be $1.05 maxiumum. Help yourself

For the less brave amongst us, I have another bet of the week to follow my successful tip on Irish Lights last week (hey! one in a row!).

Lee Freedman takes another of those pommie horses to Randwick. He's won two from two and is entered in the Cox and the Epsom. As Purple is in the race, he's got in with the minimum weight. (No rain is forecast, so purple, like Adam Scott, can't win.) As if that's not enough, stable jockey Dwayne Dunn is making the trip to ride. The smarties have taken the $7 that Centrebet put up and he's $5.50 now. Put last week's winnings on, take each way if you wish.

What?. Oh yes...he's called SOUND OF NATURE

Jockeying for position

Races are hard enough to win without dropping the horse out last and making them overtake the field. So why (oh why) do professional jockeys make it so hard? Both Neroli and Trusting should have won today. Raffaelo too. Great to see my prediction on Irish Lights come true (boy she's good) but half an hour before Speedy's race can I plea that Dunn doesn't take her to the back of the field on the worst race track in the country?

Location, location, location

Four of the best horses in training go to Caulfield tomorrow. Reckon only one of them will win.

Our favourite horse, Speed Gifted is first emergency for the Naturalism. Despite not actually being in the race, the bookies have him at $2.60. That's how good he is. But he might not get a run. Bring on the Metrop when we'll hopefully see our double come up with Irish Lights.

The Coolmore horse could be anything and at $4 tomorrow, he's the bet of the day.

I'm really confident that in a few months time, barring injury, we'll be hailing Trusting as one of the finds of the season. But he's racing at Caulfield tomorrow and it's a leaders track. Let's hope he runs a shocker and we can pile into him when he runs at either Flemington or Randwick at double figure odds.

Finally, Neroli returns tomorrow. Unless it sluices down overnight, she can't win. Elsewhere look out for Hume and Funtantes, both bringing great Qld form to town.

The bet of the day is IRISH LIGHTS.

Spring Racing Carnival

Hotting up by the week, the greatest racing season in the world is almost here. Can't remember a year when I've fancied so many horses so strongly.

Toppermost still is SPEED GIFTED. He won oh so easily at Flemington again last week and I just reckon he might be another Pebbles, another Dawn Run, dare I say it, even another Desert Orchid. All the value has gone for the cups of course but he has to win either the Metropolitan or one of the Cups. As McCririck would say, Get ON!

I've also taken some ludicrous prices about the Godolphin horses including 600/1 about Crime Scene and 100/1 about Kirklees at the Valley. Speaking of which, 100/1 about DENMAN in the Cox Plate seems great shopping.

My other big tip of the year is Coolmore's IRISH LIGHTS. Very few horses not called Speed Gifted have ever won so easily ay Flemington and again he could be anything. Take the 12/1 in the Guineas into Speedy in the Metropolitan. We have...

Turn, turn, turn.

Been doing a Faldo. Hidden away trying to perfect the swing and inevitably have hit the wall with this shoulder turn business. No turn equals sway. Sway equals steep attack, huge divots and missing a green with a wedge. That's bad.

So after another night bashing balls at the range, I need to remember this. 1-2-3, 1-2-3, 1-2-3, 1-2-3 and so on.

Has to be easier than turning the core to face my knee. Another classic from the idiots at TG.

Take it shot by shot. Will let you know.

Written in the stars?

He's 7 shots off the lead and has just 11 holes to play. In the US Open. So why is Tiger great value at 17/1?

Don't think Barnes can keep it straight enough down the stretch. Glover's got mind issues when he gets in contention. Can't think where to start with Duval. The fatBoy and Weir are poor value although both could sneak it as could Mahan.

Have taken the 50/1 about Goosen who knows how to win and the 320/1 on Soren Hansen. (Because it's 320/1 mainly).

But I can't say no to a small saver at 17/1 about the world's greatest sportsman on his home turf. The man who won on one leg last year. As Joe Strummer would say, "ridiculous ain't it".

TOPPING runs in a barrier trial at Toowoomba tomorrow. (It's in Australia). Will he be the next Xaar Xaar or the next Go Golf World? Go you hopefully good thing...

Open and shut?

We're back to the old dilemma. Do we back Tiger at 3/1 now or wait till he shoots 74 on day one and take the more generous 5/1? Or do we wait till 36 holes are under our belt?

The answer of course is a bit of both. We'll wait till tomorrow on Tiger and pick the best outsider on Saturday morning. For now we'll concentrate on fidning the winner of the "betting without Tiger" market. Our criteria are obvious. Must be able to win under pressure. Must know how to hit it straight and long. Be nice if he's a good price too.

It's the last criteria that knocks out Phil, Sergio, Furyk and Casey. But I reckon three of them can't win anyway. Like Adam Scott (who he?).

My three tentative choices are ludicrously sentimental. My three poms against the rest are Luke Donald, Lee Westwood and Graeme McDowell. They've all shown enough to suggest they'll be up for this and at 75/1 plus, great value. I've also had a micron on James Nitties. 790/1 was just too hard to resist.

We'll be back at the weekend, hopefuly just before the Lions put De Wet Barry's countrymen in their place. Not a moment too soon.

Back to reality

Two birdies down the stretch. Tiger wins. And I'm 50, apparently. Hilarious.

As is the website I got this picture from. It's called www.cakethat.com. Marvellous. Happy, happy happy...

Out of the woods?

How bizarre. Calculating the odds on a big event and not even thinking about Tiger. Famous last words? We'll see...

Yesterday was obviously tougher than the first day where Loooook Donald shot 8 under. I've never heard of Matt Bettencourt but noticed that in shooting the day's lowest round he had three bogeys to go with the 8 birdies. Which is nice. At 100/1 we had to take a few dollars worth...

As for the rest of the field, DiMarco is good value three off the lead at 100/1. He's struggled since the operation but he's gradually coming back to form and obviously knows how to win. I'm also interested in the 400/1 about Hunter MayHan. He can win. As can Johnson Wagner at 200/1, That's him in the picture.

But it's entirely possible I'll be starting again with more small stakes tomorrow...

Melbourne Cup Winner 2009

Last Saturday, I saw the Australian debut of this year's Melbourne Cup winner.

Speed Gifted's first experience of an Australian race meeting was fittingly at Flemington. This son of Montjeu (sounds familar?) formerly trained by Luca Cumani and now looked after by a bloke who knows a thing or two about the cup, Lee Freedman, put in the most dazzling sprint since Pebbles won the Breeders Cup.

Starting at the luxurious odds of 20/1 in a modest Melbourne event despite being placed in a UK Gp3 race last year, he sat wide 6 furlongs out until he suddenly went whooska leaving everything paddling in his wake.

I don't think we'll get the 80/1 we got about Bauer last year, but holy moly. What a run!

Tiger? He can't win...

What happpened there? Apart from another donation going to my bookie's new Bentley fund.

To the relief of all and sundry, Eldrich's taking the week off this week along with, well virtually everyone you've ever heard of from the PGA Tour. The Valero Texas Open is like a golfing equivalent of Life on Mars with both Corey Pavin and David Duval (David Duval?) both on the leaderboard chasing Justin Leonard and Paul Goydos. Leonard is astonishingly bad value at less than 4/1 with 54 to go on a course where birdies are swarming around. Not for us thanks.

It's a lottery wit 54 to go but have to have a few dollars on Jarrod Lyle at the ridiculous odds of 1000/1. An old favourite of ours, Jarrod was 4 under after ten holes, three off the lead when I left home this morning. All day I've been planning to have a few quid on at, say 40/1 as I thought he'd be the smokey, a few shots off the lead. Taking a quadruple bogey at his 11th hole then two more coming home means he's 9 shots back. 1000/1! Ridiculous.

As is Nathan Green at 830/1. Three birdies and three bogeys make level today, but this is his sort of track. And at those odds...

You can get huge odds about Nick O'Hern as well. Not for me ta.

Big punting weekend again. Looking out for Extra Zero at Flemington plus Sarerra in Singapore. I'm also told that Hey Elvis is laid out for the Straddy. Go careful out there...

Still good value at half the price!

Tiger Woods was 7/1 yesterday. If only we'd tipped more on. He's still great value to win at 3/1 (even if that's the price he was at when the tournament started).

If you really want overnight value for your bets, Perry is still 100+, but perhaps just too far off the lead. We'll keep our fingers crossed that the 300/1 about Danny Chopra comes good.

Good to see Poulter hang in there today but worryingly for punters he topped the scrambling stats whilst Cejka leads having topped the straight driving stats, hitting 88% of fairways (all bar one in simple english). I'm not sure he'll be doing that come Sunday. He's not won in the US before and I don't think a 4 shot lead is material here where doubles and worse are commonplace. And that's just at the island par three 17th.

Anybody with money in their accounts should take the 3/1 about Tiger to win. It's almost stealing...

This is what they want

Love tournaments like this. 7/1 the field at half way and already we've seen people shoot 7 under yet the leader is just a few shots ahead. I'm going to ignore Cjeka. I'd say he's a bit of an Adam Scott. Likewise Poulter and Stenson. Not because i don't think the Europeans can win, but they just don't offer any value. To labour the point, you can get 8/1 about Tiger still and he's far from out of it.

But, of course, I've gone wider. And why not, when you can get 100/1 about Geoff Ogilvy, 400/1 about Vijay and a similar price about Danny Chopra who shot 7 under today. They, like Tim Clark and Ernie Else are just irresistible at the odds.

Geoff Ogilvy had a mare today. Four bogeys and a double matched with six birdies. He's great value at 100/1. Get on, live a little. Just pray they don't decide the play off with a penalty shoot out.

A whole new ball game

I first played golf on a 9 hole course on holiday in Ireland with my Mum and Dad. I was 12 years old. having watched Trevino, Jacklin et al on Shell's World of Golf, I was hooked. The rest is boring history but suffice to say that through my job I've probably read more tips on instruction than is healthy, even for a golf nut.

One thing I've learned is that the correct grip is essential. Like stance, posture, the right clubs and a good mental game. Essential. And whichever guru you turn to, books, tired old golf magazines, even my friends at the Golf Magic forum, they all agree on one thing. Overlapping, Vardon, Interlocking, all grips are ok.

Except the baseball grip.

The "baseball" or ten finger grip is uniformly despised by golf's literati. Like Jim Furyk's swing or Angel Cabrera's belly putter, it's not what a proper golfer uses. Although, those two blokes aren't exactly doing it tough...

At the range on Sunday, after a hopeless medal round the day before, I switched back to the baseball grip in sheer desperation. Suddenly it all made sense again. Irons hit crisper, 5 wood nailed into kingdom come and glory of glories...it works for those tricky shots around the green that make grown men weep.

So this week, I've been nipping into the back room every so often and swinging a club with a baseball grip. I'll have a hit at the range on Friday or Saturday and then St Michaels had better look out. Wish me luck...

Nessa's our special guest tipster

Oh. I won't lie to you. Kenny Perry's going to win the money this weekend. Field's hopeless, see. And all the so called experts are tipping people who can't win. What's more of a worry, I'll be honest with you is that they are all tipping the same people who can't win (and here goes the kiss of death) like Senden, Merrick, Hamilton and Howell Mark 3.

Take my advice, in any race where you can get 18/1 the favourite, it's worth a look. Load up on Kenny Perry to get back to winning ways. Alun's back next week...look you, isn't it.

Tidy.

Would have, could have etc...

She should have won, would have if a) the race had been another 100 meters or b) if the jockey wasn't a halfwit. Damn.

The Verizon classic isn't really that much of a classic. If Brian Gay does hold on to win (he probably won't) then it'll be a reflection of the field as much as anything. Given that someone has shot 65 every day (and over a dozen did yesterday) you'd think that the tournament will be won with a score around 13 under. Gay's been flawless to here with just one bad hole in the first 54 but with just one tour win in the last five years, I'm not interested in taking the odds on him adding another trophy to the proverbial.

Davis Love is still there and knowing the course backwards could still represent the best value at 20/1. Luke Donald is probably itching a win and on pure form, one of the stars of Augusta looks nicely poised a few behind the leader. Then again, it is Todd Hamilton...

The forgotten horse?

Form over the distance. Trainer in form. Light weight. Won a big race a fortnight ago in the heavy (and boy did it rain in Sydney this week).

I reckon NEROLI is nailed on for the Doncaster at each way prices. Make up an exotic with Hot Danish if you like, but don't miss this one.

It must be (Davis) Love, Love Love.

Harbour Town. Famous for being one of the original computer game courses with an 18th hole that wrecked many a card and the place that Davis "loves". (That's enough Davis Love puns I think)

He's a prolific winner here and others who have course form are Justin Leonard and Stewart Cink. You can be forgiven if you're thinking we've ended up in some kind of Dr Who meets the PGA time travel thing, especially when the PGA Tour experts unanimously pick another old man, Jim Furyk as this weeks winner!

It's hard to know what to make of the Masters but I'm saying Furyk did it tough and I reckon it'll be tougher for him to give a monkeys about the Verizon classic. Same applies to Cink and Els for mine. Amongst the most extraordinary tips on the web this week are some well respected experts tipping Rory McIlroy and Robert Allenby. They'll be tipping old Scotty next...

I'm taking two against the field at silly odds until the cut when I'll wade in properly. It's still hilarious that anyone's called Boo Weekly and like many at Emap I wonder whether he has a wife called Sue. (Sue weekly...geddit?).

Whatever, he's won here twice and defends the title this week. A more likely prospect who had a nice trip to Augusta is Aaron Baddeley. Devilishly good on the greens and last years unlucky runner up, he may well rise up to the top come Sunday. As it were.

Good luck to anyone who has any money left after Augusta...

Back to single figures?

I've been toiling with a double digit handicap for too long. From the age of 15 when Rupert Speechley cut me six shots from 14 to 8 for "general play", I was a single figure man well into my thirties with a lifetime handicap low of 6.1. Mind you, that was when I was working on a golf magazine and playing twice a week plus practice, but that's not important.

After a lifetime already of playing the game, I'm going to collect and publish all the very best tips and advice I can muster, both from the interweb and the deep recesses of my brain to crack the secret of single figures. Inspired by the waistlines on offer down the stretch at Augusta (kenny Perry's 49 didn't you know) it's time for a serious crack at it.

We're on the way back, back, (back!) to what the locals call "A Grade". Join me on my journey!

Best laid plans...

How many selections do you need before you come to Angel Cabrera? Some lucky soul got 330/1 on betfair during the week and you could have grabbed 12/1 last night. I didn't and as far as I can find from a trawl through the blogosphere, neither did anybody else...

Good luck to him and anyone who had a few bob on him or Katayama for the place. Guess Perry will take the easy option and stay home for the Open again after meeting his demons today. Don't think the R&A will lose too much sleep.

We'll be back, back (back!) next week and following a few conversations on Twitter (I can't bring myself to call them tweets), will be adding a bit more golf commentary to the blog based on a magazine idea I had many years ago called Fore! Look out for that and a new website called The Golf Writers both coming up soon.

They'd be in production by now if Kenny had won...

It's Kenny!

With four hours to go until showdown, Betfair have Cabrera as favourite, with Tiger out to 22/1. The words "surely he can't win" come to mind. For both of them...

In what might now be the dullest finish to a major ever, we're faced with the prospect of a shoot out between Perry, Furyk, Todd Hamilton and blimmin Rory Sabbatini. I'll have a tenner with you now that if he wins, he'll dedicate it to Gary Player. God give us all strength. There's no chance that Shingo or Tim Clark can get up sadly, especially for me as I've got a voucher on the par three winner for odds of 350/1.

I've had a little saver tonight on Sabbatini at 50 and Hamilton at 75 and still nothing on Chad but with my bets from three weeks ago at 100/1 ready to collect, it's a big cheerio and come on my sons to Kenny Perry and Jim Furyk, lets see one of you bring the cup home in style.

6/1 The field?. Got to love Betfair...

This must be one of the best half way leaderboards for years. There's a good chance that Kenny stay at home Perry can hold his lead and we've got Harrington, Mickelson, Singh (hurrah!), Furyk, even Sergio, god bless him, still in the hunt. Plus Tiger.

That wedge at 18 was really horrid. Worryingly like me, in fact. Apart from the 320 yard uphill drive obviously. Very untiger like. Can he fix it on the range? 6/1 says he can...I'm going to pass.

We've got small price tickets running on all of the above except Paddy and Serge (yay!) with big price tickets on Badds and Romero. Have topped up with a flyer on Betfair with Poulter (at 500/1!) and Weir at 300/1.

Hoping the tournament won't be won by someone with a four letter christian name. Sorry Chad, Todd and Rory!

Who'll be runner up?

Good of the match committee at Augusta to choose a host of soft pin positions to get us all interested in the Masters again. I'm sure the TV people had a quiet word as nobody wants to watch pros struggling and making bogey.

That's all fixed and under the heading of sublime to ridiculous, Larry Mize shot 5 under! You can get 330/1 on Betfair if you reckon he can do it again. I'll give you 3,300.

They'll probably leave it easy tomorrow but then toughen up for the weekend, when we'll see Tiger stroll through the field and win again. He always starts slowly, but this year he was actually a little unlucky and could be two or three better. And given that Chad and Hunter displayed the classic US absence of backbone on the home stretch, we need someone to hold firm and give the guy a game.

Happy with our antepost vouchers on Furyk, Weir, Clark and Baddeley and have a sneaky suspicion that Tim Clark might be thereabouts come Sunday. But unless you fancy the 2/1 and haven't had a bet yet, keep your money safe for another 24 hours...

Sure fire bets for Augusta?

I like this picture. It features Trevor Immelman and Zach Johnson. Proof, if we needed it that the Masters has changed. Years ago, you'd only consider the top five in the world, maybe ten at best as betting propositions and lay them at all prices whilst they floundered (Faldo shot 75 on Friday in the year he smashed Norman) only to see the cream rise to the top come Sunday.

Stuff of legend? Sure, but this is a very different Augusta. Longer, tougher and by all accounts blimmin cold. My people tell me that it's forecast to get warmer by the weekend but in the meantime, few players have been practicing for fear of contracting frostbite or something.

So who's going to win? Tiger Woods probably and at $3.65 on Betfair now, it's one of the bets of the year, especially after that ridiculous putt a fortnight ago. Sorry but it is.

A winner's a winner, but only fools get rich at those prices, so for the rest of us, I strongly recommend Betfair's excellent "betting without Tiger" market. Here's how it works. The prices assume Tiger's not playing. So, at time of writing, you can get 7/1 about Phil and double figures about everybody else. To come second, if you get my drift. If Tiger falls at the last and your choice wins outright of course, you get a lower price than if you'd had a normal bet, but you could also be accused of being picky...

The bets I recommend now (and there'll be much better value after the cut) are based on three things: form at Augusta (no chance to practice not being a good thing for first timers), value and putting. There's simply no point backing someone who gets the wobbles on Sunday. Sorry Fred.

My three against the Tiger-less field based on the above are therefore:
Trevor Immelman (80/1). First to practice on Sunday and quite clearly basing his whole year around this (wouldn't you?). Let's hope he's here for more than choosing the meals?

Luke Donald (80/1). 4 times the price of Casey? Value I reckon, despite a poor year with a few injuries. He'll be fit and firing and boy can he putt.

Pat Perez (110/1): The new Zach Johnson? He's won this year and has course form, albeit from a while ago.

I'd also consider the following good value: Ian Poulter (80/1). Gutsy and likely to raise his game. Aaron Baddeley (140/1) Great putter. Has God on his side. Tim Clark?

But you can't back them all. Not that this has stopped me in the past. We'll be back, back (back!) with more tips after 36 holes. And yes, we do hold a 100/1 outright ticket on Kenny Perry. Ridiculous. As is the blogger who writing about Gary Player said "you never know". Yes, we do. Like a certain Queenslander, he can't win. See you...I'll be one with bleary eyes...

The greatest weekend of the year?

And that's betting without the Ospreys at Thomond Park. Tonight, we'll be posting the latest news from Augusta where the weather is currently unsettled but set fair for another huge weekend. We'll be taking a very special look at the "without Tiger" markets where the value was last year. It may be worth snapping up the 50/1 about Vijay Singh now though.

We'll pass on the tempting odds on Scott, Couples, Allenby and anyone else who can't putt.

See you tonight! Watch out for the updates on Twitter...

the week before the show

It's a measure of how big next week is, that apparently Redstone Golf Club, home of this weeks Houston Open is famous for being "like Augusta". That's nice.

Sadly, even though there's a million bucks on offer, I can't help but feel that many of the field will use these 72 holes as putting practice. Not including Tiger of course who's not here. But then he hardly needs putting practice, does he.

The experts are tipping Mickelson, Ogilvy, Sergio...and Stricker. At least two pundits have picked Alviro Quiros as he smashes it long distances. Course form throws up Chad Campbell, who has been talking about looking forward to Houston and knows the course like the back of his hand plus Vijay Singh who has won this twice since it came here. Then there's Johnson Wagner, last year's winner who was overheard telling friends that his game is "coming back". He would say that.

Small stakes best for us this week in a congested field, with a real bet to come after 36. A few bob to win on Vijay, a few more on Wagner and my usual saver on the Wimeister. Come on Charlie! Welcome to all my twitter friends. growing every day...

Is that a new golf course?

Legend has it that in 1995 or thereabouts, someone asked Sandy Lyle what he thought of Tiger Woods. Sandy thought it was the name of a new golf course. Mind you, when bumping into Tony Jacklin at Orlando airport later that year, Sandy's answer to Tony's question "where are you off to" was "the toilet".

Lyle notwithstanding, could anybody now disagree that Tiger is not just the greatest golfer of all time, but possibly, just possibly the greatest sportsman ever?

Last Sunday was just ridiculous. Ask Sean O'Hair. But no more ridiculous than the US Open on one leg. Or that chip in at 16 at the Masters with the Nike logo poised over the cup.

Tiger Woods. Greatest. Sportsman. Ever. And yes, 3/1 was great value....that subject, my dear Twittering friends, is now closed.

leader of the gang

Charlie Wi repaid our faith appearing in the top five last week to cap off a great week on the punt. No golf bets this week, especially not the 3/1 about Tiger!

Off to Caulfield today for yet another day of racing dominated by leaders. The last few meetings at the track have been ridiculous with front runners slushing home at ridiculous prices. If you're studying the card, look for horse with winning form at the track and distance. Ignore the bookies prices!

To save you all the time and effort, here's the best bets today.

Sandhill Prince is the best bet of the day in race three. It will lead and win and you should get each way odds. The next best bet of the day is Stokehouse in race 8. Each way punters should have a look at Quizzical Lady in the fourth, Rich Esprit in the fifth and Riva San in the next. The good news is that Alf Matthews doesn't tip any of them...

Running hot?

I played with Nathan Green once. Well, more accurately, I caddied for a mexican pro whose name escapes me who was paired in the Jacobs Creek with the Novocastrian. I remember being blown away by Nathan Green's ordinariness (and his huge caddie who grunted at me all the way round). Green's game was reminiscent of Peter Alliss...hit it down the middle somewhere, knock it on the green, putt it close and hole out...easy. Tidy but bottom line, he's not the man you'd expect to be shooting for the lead in the USA.

But he is. He's three shots off the Furyk action and I've backed him at 330/1. Trevor Immelman, another of my picks, is in the clubhouse at 3 under and he's safely backed at 200/1. But in the week when I left Cheltenham with a bunch of twenty's it's Chris Couch we'll be watching tomorrow after taking the 1000/1 on Betfair. Couchy started with four birdies till he woke up limping home to a 70, one under par.

Wish I had Sky TV when I'm travelling. Justin TV and I are about to become good friends. Go Couchy!

Cheltenham Festival!

Was I the only punter who attended Randwick and Cheltenham in the same week? There's nothing like the Festival and once again, from the 9.30 train journey filled with eager punters through to the terrific card of racing it lived up to all expectations.

Well more, actually, thanks to an inspired selection in the last race, where my tenner on Andytown returned an unbelievable 317 pounds return after an easy win. And this coming after my old mate Tom backed a 22/1 winner earlier in the day and we both had a few bob on a 10/1 winner. As they say round here "ay ay"...

If I'd had my wits about me, I'd have backed the forecast in the first as well, but I didn't. Still, is there any better feeling in the world than getting home with your pockets bulging with bookie's cash? I've not come across it yet....

Transition sir?

A blank sheet last week, but at least the boyos scraped home in Rome. Scraped being the operative word. This week the PGA boyos go to one of Florida's toughest courses for the bizarrely named transitions champonship. There's probably a good reason for the name, but who cares...

This week is all about value for mine. The experts on PGA.com are tipping Furyk and O'Hair who are the obvious choices on form and track record and there's sniffilings around Calcavecchia and Petterson who again have previous race form round course and distance. Implausibly, there's also a tip on PGA.com for Adam Scott. He can't win.

My short list for the week reflects the fact that this is a tough players course rather than the usual American tournament layout. Perhaps that brings Brian Davis into play at huge odds? Nathan Green? James Nitties? Trevor Immelman? They're all out there at three figure odds, so all worth a look.

Nick Watney is 38/1. Seems big. On a course where a score of 4 under can win, this will be tough. But we're backing Charlie Wi again after a reasonable performance last year. It's not a great field and he's 80/1. Take your pick and good luck...

Tiger, tiger burning blue...

We're back, back (back!). Have to admit I get distracted during the 6 nations but a six hour stopover en route to the Land of My Fathers does wonders for the writers block. The tour's off to the Blue Monster in Dural and according to the experts we're going to see a win for Tiger, Phil or...Allenby? Eh? Here's a pop quiz. Which one of that trio can't putt for toffee?

Despite Tiger being Tiger and winning here over half the times he's turned up, he's just no odds for a 72 hole marathon. Not when you can get the same price for a place on the favourite in the Triumph Hurdle. And as for Allenby, I'm saying he'll be paired with Scott at the end of the tournament, possibly rushing breakfast on the final day.

I was really impressed with Lee Westwood last week. Striking it crisply, swinging back to his best, he's terrific value at 60/1. As is Justin Rose who despite form is never a 125/1 shot. But the real value, form and price is just dead obvious this week.

Vijay Singh finished tied eleventh and second in the last two years and has been in the top 10 at the CA Championship in five of his eight starts. Whilst he's been a bit Allenby like with the putter recently, he's currently ranked 10th in greens in regulation. Best of all, he's three times the price of the Fat Controller and 10 times the price of the King. Each Way? I should coco...

Good to be back?

At first glance the Mercedes tournament seemed right up our proverbial. We've got a strung out field, heaps of birdies and people shooting 7 under to leap up the leaderboard. Hell, even the boy from the bush shot six under today.

But our original delight at the field soon turned to disappointment when I checked betfair's prices. I was expecting at least 100/1 about each of our two best picks but at time of typing, even 50/1 looks good. Ah well.

Ryuchi Imada is an obvious choice. He's had heaps of birdies in both the opening rounds (and a few bogies yesterday) and of course brings form to the course. How could we forget when we backed him to win at 100/1 last year. Can't help but tip him again.

5 off the lead and just 34/1 also reminds me of last year, when I actually wrote that Camillo Villegas seemed good value but didn't actually tip him. He won of course. He's had heaps of birdies in both rounds, so in a tournament that'll likely be won with 15 or 16 under, he's just about in the frame. Wish he was a bigger price, but I won't get fooled again. Back him now and collect Monday!